Climate change, population growth and environmental destruction could cause a collapse of the ecosystem just a few generations from now, scientists warned on Wednesday in the journal Nature.
The paper by 22 top researchers said a 'tipping point' by which the biosphere goes into swift and irreversible change, with potentially cataclysmic impacts for humans, could occur as early as this century.
The warning contrasts with a mainstream view among scientists that environmental collapse would be gradual and take centuries.
The study appears ahead of the June 20-22 UN Conference on Sustainable Development, the 20-year followup to the Earth Summit that set down priorities for protecting the environment.
The Nature paper, written by biologists, ecologists, geologists and palaeontologists from three continents, compared the biological impact of past episodes of global change with what is happening today.
The factors in today's equation include a world population that is set to rise from seven billion to around 9.3 billion by mid-century and global warming that will outstrip the UN target of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
The team determined that once 50-90 percent of small-scale ecosystems become altered, the entire eco-web tips over into a new state, characterised especially by species extinctions.
Once the shift happens, it cannot be reversed.
To support today's population, about 43 percent of Earth's ice-free land surface is being used for farming or habitation, according to the study.
On current trends, the 50 percent mark will be reached by 2025, a point the scientists said is worryingly close to the tipping point.
If that happened, collapse would entail a shocking disruption for the world's food supply, with bread-basket regions curtailed in their ability to grow corn, wheat, rice, fodder and other essential crops.
'It really will be a new world, biologically, at that point,' said lead author Anthony Barnosky, a professor of integrative biology at the University of California in Berkeley.
'The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations.'
The authors stressed it was unclear when this feared tipover would happen, given blanks in knowledge about the phenomenon.
And they said there were plenty of solutions -- such as ending unsustainable patterns of growth and resource waste -- that mean it is not inevitable.
'In a nutshell, humans have not done anything really important to stave off the worst because the social structures for doing something just aren't there,' said Arne Mooers, a professor of biodiversity at Simon Fraser University in Canada's British Columbia.
'My colleagues who study climate-induced changes through the Earth's history are more than pretty worried,' he said in a press release. 'In fact, some are terrified.'
Past shifts examined in the study included the end of the last Ice Age, between 14,000 and 11,000 years ago, and five species mass extinctions which occurred around 443 million, 359 million, 251 million, 200 million and 65 million years ago.
Earth today is vulnerable to fast change because of the growing connectedness between ecosystems, voracious use of resources and an unprecedented surge in greenhouse gases, the authors concluded.
In a report on Wednesday issued ahead of the 'Rio+20' summit, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that burgeoning populations and unsustainable patterns of growth were driving Earth towards 'unprecedented' eco-damage.
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Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Consumption driving environment damage: UN
Population growth and unsustainable consumption are driving Earth towards 'unprecedented' environmental destruction, the UN said in a report Wednesday ahead of the Rio Summit.
Of 90 key goals to protect the environment, only four have seen good progress, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a planetary assessment issued only every five years.
'If current trends continue, if current patterns of production and consumption of natural resources prevail and cannot be reversed and 'decoupled,' then governments will preside over unprecedented levels of damage and degradation,' said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.
The phonebook-sized report, the fifth edition of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO), was issued ahead of the June 20-22 UN Conference on Sustainable Development -- the 20-year follow-up to the landmark Earth Summit, also in Rio.
Preceded by a series of forums gathering as many as 50,000 policymakers, business executives and activists, the summit aims at plotting a course for green development over the next two decades.
But the report warned of many challenges, painting a tableau of a planet whose resources were being stressed into the red zone.
Since 1950, the world's population has doubled to seven billion and is on course for around 9.3 billion by 2050 and some 10 billion by 2100.
At the same time, use of natural resources has zoomed as emerging countries follow rich economies in a lifestyle that is gluttonous on energy and use of water, habitat and fisheries.
'The scale, spread and rate of change of global drivers are without precedent. Burgeoning populations and growing economies are pushing environmental systems to destabilising limits,' said the report.
It analysed 90 objectives for the environment identified by UN members.
Only four have seen significant progress: scrapping CFC chemicals that damage Earth's protective ozone layer; removing lead from fuel; increasing access to clean water for the poor; and boosting research to reduce marine pollution.
In 40 goals that UN member states asked to be monitored, there was 'some' progress, such as expanding national parks and tackling deforestation.
But there was little or no progress in 24 others, including curbing climate change, fisheries depletion and desertification.
For climate change, the last decade was the warmest on record, and in 2010 emissions from fossil fuels were the highest ever.
'Under current models, greenhouse-gas emissions could double over the next 50 years, leading to (a) rise in global temperature of three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) or more by the end of the century,' UNEP said.
'The annual economic damage from climate change is estimated at 1-2 percent of world GDP by 2100 if temperatures increase by 2.5 C (4.5 F),' it warned. The UN's target is 2 C (3.6 F).
However, there have been gains in energy efficiency and 'some progress' towards meeting emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, UNEP said.
For eight goals, including preservation of the coral reefs, things have deteriorated.
The world fell far short of meeting a Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of significantly reducing destruction of biodiversity by 2010.
'Around 20 percent of vertebrate species are under threat,' said UNEP.
'The extinction risk is increasing faster for corals than for any other group of living organisms, with the condition of coral reefs declining by 38 percent since 1980. Rapid contraction is projected by 2050.'
Data was insufficient to enable a judgement on the 14 other goals.
The GEO report proposed a panoply of remedial measures for Earth's population to start living within its means, including more efficient use of energy and eco-friendlier resources.
Also important was to redefine human progress so that it goes beyond the simple yardstick of economic growth to included quality of life issues.
The Rio Summit is to assess progress since the 1992 Earth Summit, considered a landmark for creating awareness on climate change and biodiversity.
Among ideas that are being debated for the summit is to set down 'Sustainable Development Goals' that would succeed the MDGs when their deadline comes up in 2015.
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Of 90 key goals to protect the environment, only four have seen good progress, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a planetary assessment issued only every five years.
'If current trends continue, if current patterns of production and consumption of natural resources prevail and cannot be reversed and 'decoupled,' then governments will preside over unprecedented levels of damage and degradation,' said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.
The phonebook-sized report, the fifth edition of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO), was issued ahead of the June 20-22 UN Conference on Sustainable Development -- the 20-year follow-up to the landmark Earth Summit, also in Rio.
Preceded by a series of forums gathering as many as 50,000 policymakers, business executives and activists, the summit aims at plotting a course for green development over the next two decades.
But the report warned of many challenges, painting a tableau of a planet whose resources were being stressed into the red zone.
Since 1950, the world's population has doubled to seven billion and is on course for around 9.3 billion by 2050 and some 10 billion by 2100.
At the same time, use of natural resources has zoomed as emerging countries follow rich economies in a lifestyle that is gluttonous on energy and use of water, habitat and fisheries.
'The scale, spread and rate of change of global drivers are without precedent. Burgeoning populations and growing economies are pushing environmental systems to destabilising limits,' said the report.
It analysed 90 objectives for the environment identified by UN members.
Only four have seen significant progress: scrapping CFC chemicals that damage Earth's protective ozone layer; removing lead from fuel; increasing access to clean water for the poor; and boosting research to reduce marine pollution.
In 40 goals that UN member states asked to be monitored, there was 'some' progress, such as expanding national parks and tackling deforestation.
But there was little or no progress in 24 others, including curbing climate change, fisheries depletion and desertification.
For climate change, the last decade was the warmest on record, and in 2010 emissions from fossil fuels were the highest ever.
'Under current models, greenhouse-gas emissions could double over the next 50 years, leading to (a) rise in global temperature of three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) or more by the end of the century,' UNEP said.
'The annual economic damage from climate change is estimated at 1-2 percent of world GDP by 2100 if temperatures increase by 2.5 C (4.5 F),' it warned. The UN's target is 2 C (3.6 F).
However, there have been gains in energy efficiency and 'some progress' towards meeting emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, UNEP said.
For eight goals, including preservation of the coral reefs, things have deteriorated.
The world fell far short of meeting a Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of significantly reducing destruction of biodiversity by 2010.
'Around 20 percent of vertebrate species are under threat,' said UNEP.
'The extinction risk is increasing faster for corals than for any other group of living organisms, with the condition of coral reefs declining by 38 percent since 1980. Rapid contraction is projected by 2050.'
Data was insufficient to enable a judgement on the 14 other goals.
The GEO report proposed a panoply of remedial measures for Earth's population to start living within its means, including more efficient use of energy and eco-friendlier resources.
Also important was to redefine human progress so that it goes beyond the simple yardstick of economic growth to included quality of life issues.
The Rio Summit is to assess progress since the 1992 Earth Summit, considered a landmark for creating awareness on climate change and biodiversity.
Among ideas that are being debated for the summit is to set down 'Sustainable Development Goals' that would succeed the MDGs when their deadline comes up in 2015.
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Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Climate change to cost LatAm $100 bn by 2050: study
Global warming could exact a devastating toll on the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, with costs possibly exceeding $100 billion by 2050, the Inter-American Development Bank warned Tuesday.
In a new report, the Washington-based organization also called for 'forceful' reductions in greenhouse gases to forestall some of the worst consequences of climate change.
The bank urged countries in the region to dramatically increase their efforts to prevent climate change and mitigate its negative impacts, including drought, diminishing agricultural yields, vanishing glaciers and raging floods.
'Many climate-related changes are irreversible and will continue to impact the region over the long term,' Walter Vergara, the bank's Division Chief of Climate Change and Sustainability and the lead researcher of the study, said in a statement.
'To prevent further damages, adaptation is necessary but not enough. Bolder actions are needed to bend the emissions curve in the coming decades,' he said.
The report -- issued by the bank, the Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) -- is to be formally unveiled later this month at the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development.
The gathering in Rio de Janeiro of more than 100 heads of state and tens of thousands of participants from governments, the private sector and NGOs will mark the 20th anniversary of the 1992 'Earth Summit' in the Brazilian city.
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In a new report, the Washington-based organization also called for 'forceful' reductions in greenhouse gases to forestall some of the worst consequences of climate change.
The bank urged countries in the region to dramatically increase their efforts to prevent climate change and mitigate its negative impacts, including drought, diminishing agricultural yields, vanishing glaciers and raging floods.
'Many climate-related changes are irreversible and will continue to impact the region over the long term,' Walter Vergara, the bank's Division Chief of Climate Change and Sustainability and the lead researcher of the study, said in a statement.
'To prevent further damages, adaptation is necessary but not enough. Bolder actions are needed to bend the emissions curve in the coming decades,' he said.
The report -- issued by the bank, the Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) -- is to be formally unveiled later this month at the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development.
The gathering in Rio de Janeiro of more than 100 heads of state and tens of thousands of participants from governments, the private sector and NGOs will mark the 20th anniversary of the 1992 'Earth Summit' in the Brazilian city.
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Monday, June 4, 2012
Green groups block websites to protest Canada oil
Hundreds of environmentalists and other activists in Canada made their websites go dark to protest planned measures to facilitate oil pipeline construction.
The groups accuse the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper of trying to silence opponents of exploitation of Alberta's tar sands, the third-largest oil reserves in the world, through new environmental legislation it is pushing through Parliament.
The measure, included in a budget bill, allows the federal government to have the final word on approving major pipelines, as well as override National Energy Board decisions, speed up reviews of resource development projects and keep citizen groups out of environmental reviews for pipelines.
It also allocates $8 million to the Canada Revenue Agency to fund audits of charities, which activists labeled an effort to silence advocacy groups speaking out on important environmental issues.
'Under the proposed bill, Ottawa will use its power to promote oil and other major industries instead of taking care of Canada's environment, wildlife and people,' read a statement from the groups.
Among the more than 500 organizations activists said were participating in the 'Black Out, Speak Out' protest included World Wildlife Fund Canada, Greenpeace Canada and the David Suzuki Foundation, but also the websites of musician Bruce Cockburn and author Margaret Atwood.
US-based groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council and 350.org also participated by darkening their websites.
'The darkening of websites and the thousands of letters, blogs, tweets and other actions by landowners, businesses, First Nations, trade unions, scientists and citizens, reflect the grave concern and deep frustration Canadians feel about the direction the federal government is heading,' said Alex Neve, secretary general of Amnesty International Canada.
'Fundamental human rights such as freedom of expression are at stake.'
Environmental leaders held a press conference speaking from behind the bars of a wooden prison cell painted in black and placed in downtown Montreal.
'It's the very face of the country that is changing before our eyes,' warned Steven Guilbeault, co-founder and deputy executive director of Equiterre.
'Under this new environmental law, fish would only have value if they have economic value. If they don't have economic value, there is no environmental assessment.'
John Fraser, a former Conservative fisheries minister said the 'far-reaching' bill was putting key fish species at risk.
'It's bad policy and it's bad democracy,' he said. 'I'm speaking out today because I'm a Conservative and nobody can pretend to be a real Conservative if they are not a conservationist.'
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The groups accuse the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper of trying to silence opponents of exploitation of Alberta's tar sands, the third-largest oil reserves in the world, through new environmental legislation it is pushing through Parliament.
The measure, included in a budget bill, allows the federal government to have the final word on approving major pipelines, as well as override National Energy Board decisions, speed up reviews of resource development projects and keep citizen groups out of environmental reviews for pipelines.
It also allocates $8 million to the Canada Revenue Agency to fund audits of charities, which activists labeled an effort to silence advocacy groups speaking out on important environmental issues.
'Under the proposed bill, Ottawa will use its power to promote oil and other major industries instead of taking care of Canada's environment, wildlife and people,' read a statement from the groups.
Among the more than 500 organizations activists said were participating in the 'Black Out, Speak Out' protest included World Wildlife Fund Canada, Greenpeace Canada and the David Suzuki Foundation, but also the websites of musician Bruce Cockburn and author Margaret Atwood.
US-based groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council and 350.org also participated by darkening their websites.
'The darkening of websites and the thousands of letters, blogs, tweets and other actions by landowners, businesses, First Nations, trade unions, scientists and citizens, reflect the grave concern and deep frustration Canadians feel about the direction the federal government is heading,' said Alex Neve, secretary general of Amnesty International Canada.
'Fundamental human rights such as freedom of expression are at stake.'
Environmental leaders held a press conference speaking from behind the bars of a wooden prison cell painted in black and placed in downtown Montreal.
'It's the very face of the country that is changing before our eyes,' warned Steven Guilbeault, co-founder and deputy executive director of Equiterre.
'Under this new environmental law, fish would only have value if they have economic value. If they don't have economic value, there is no environmental assessment.'
John Fraser, a former Conservative fisheries minister said the 'far-reaching' bill was putting key fish species at risk.
'It's bad policy and it's bad democracy,' he said. 'I'm speaking out today because I'm a Conservative and nobody can pretend to be a real Conservative if they are not a conservationist.'
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Sunday, June 3, 2012
Peru needs glacier loss monitoring: dire UN warning
Peru needs a permanent monitoring system to gauge Andean mountain glacier shrinkage caused by global warming and its effect on people who depend on the ice for water, UN experts warned.
'We have spoken with Peruvian government institutions, and there is no sufficient monitoring system to tell us the current trend in glacier shrinkage, and its consequences,' said Anil Mishra, a UNESCO specialist in hydrological systems.
Mishra took part this week in a conference called 'Impact of Glacier Retreat in the Andes' with Thomas Shaaf, of Germany, who leads the UNESCO biodiversity science department. It aimed to deliver policy recommendations to regional governments.
'We are in Peru to work with scientists from the region, with their specialists, to identify and understand the process of glacier shrinkage,' Mishra added.
Experts say the monitoring system should include scientists, high-tech equipment and hydrologists to identify the degree of ice melting, the degree to which rivers fed by them are losing water supplies; and which down-mountain areas will be affected by the loss of water supplies and how much.
'In the Andes, runoff from glaciated basins is an important element of the regional water budget, and is essential to the integrity of mountain ecosystems,' UNESCO said in a statement on the gathering last week.
A 2009 World Bank report said that in the last 35 years, Peru's glaciers have shrunk by 22 percent, leading to a 12 percent loss in the amount of fresh water reaching the coast, home to most of the desert country's citizens who depend on the water supplies downstream.
And the local Glacier Science Office has reported that the glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca in northern Peru, the highest tropical mountain chain in the world, have shrunk by 30 percent in the past 40 years due to climate change.
'The scientific community and governments have got to understand what the consequences will be for river systems when the glaciers no longer exist,' Mishra warned.
Shaaf added that with the passing years there is less snow falling on the high mountains even as the ice is shrinking 'and so less water is going into river systems, even if the population has not felt it yet.
Many scientists believe that with climate change, rain cycles will speed up and rains will be heavier in tropical and already wet areas but that dry and semiarid areas will see less and less precipitation.
Peru's population is almost 30 million.
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'We have spoken with Peruvian government institutions, and there is no sufficient monitoring system to tell us the current trend in glacier shrinkage, and its consequences,' said Anil Mishra, a UNESCO specialist in hydrological systems.
Mishra took part this week in a conference called 'Impact of Glacier Retreat in the Andes' with Thomas Shaaf, of Germany, who leads the UNESCO biodiversity science department. It aimed to deliver policy recommendations to regional governments.
'We are in Peru to work with scientists from the region, with their specialists, to identify and understand the process of glacier shrinkage,' Mishra added.
Experts say the monitoring system should include scientists, high-tech equipment and hydrologists to identify the degree of ice melting, the degree to which rivers fed by them are losing water supplies; and which down-mountain areas will be affected by the loss of water supplies and how much.
'In the Andes, runoff from glaciated basins is an important element of the regional water budget, and is essential to the integrity of mountain ecosystems,' UNESCO said in a statement on the gathering last week.
A 2009 World Bank report said that in the last 35 years, Peru's glaciers have shrunk by 22 percent, leading to a 12 percent loss in the amount of fresh water reaching the coast, home to most of the desert country's citizens who depend on the water supplies downstream.
And the local Glacier Science Office has reported that the glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca in northern Peru, the highest tropical mountain chain in the world, have shrunk by 30 percent in the past 40 years due to climate change.
'The scientific community and governments have got to understand what the consequences will be for river systems when the glaciers no longer exist,' Mishra warned.
Shaaf added that with the passing years there is less snow falling on the high mountains even as the ice is shrinking 'and so less water is going into river systems, even if the population has not felt it yet.
Many scientists believe that with climate change, rain cycles will speed up and rains will be heavier in tropical and already wet areas but that dry and semiarid areas will see less and less precipitation.
Peru's population is almost 30 million.
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Saturday, June 2, 2012
Clinton in Arctic to see impact of climate change
Experts here estimate the value of the Arctic's untapped oil alone -- not including natural gas and minerals -- at $900 trillion, making it a huge prize for the five countries that surround the Arctic if they can reach it.
And with climate warming opening up some 46,000 square kilometres (18,000 square miles) a year that had once been bound in ice, the region is expected to burst open, not just with oil exploration but with East-West trade along a more accessible northern route.
Returning from a tour of the Arctic coastline aboard a Norwegian research trawler with scientists and government officials, Clinton told reporters that she learned "many of the predictions about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data."
"That was not necessarily surprising but sobering," she said.
The United States wants to see that change managed by the Arctic Council, an advisory group composed of the Arctic's closest neighbours, even as other countries, among them China, are drawn to the region for oil, gas and trade.
"A lot of countries are looking at what will be a potential for exploration and extraction of natural resources, as well as new sea lanes, and are increasingly expressing interest in the Arctic," Clinton said.
"We want the Arctic Council to remain the premier institution that deals with Arctic questions."
The council has its headquarters in Tromsoe, a university town of 70,000 people inside the Arctic Circle that is now emerging as a hub for research and increasingly oil and gas exploration of the region.
"Governance has to keep pace with these changes," Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, who accompanied Clinton on her visit here, told reporters.
Despite worries that a thawing Arctic could set off a "Great Game" among powers seeking to carve out their slice of undersea riches, experts here say that under the Law of the Sea only five countries can lay claim to most of it.
They are Russia, which has about half the Arctic coastline, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the United States.
Each has a coastline on the Arctic giving it exclusive economic rights to all undersea resources going out 200 nautical miles. Beyond that limit, they can lay claim to the rights to the seabed as far as the continental shelf extends from their territory.
In the case of those five countries, experts here estimate that their seabed rights together will encompass more than 90 percent of the Arctic, leaving a small central portion as high seas open to other comers.
Norway has already won UN approval for its claim to Arctic seabed and has begun producing oil in some areas.
Russia's claim was rejected for lack of detailed documentation, but it is expected to return to the UN authority that manages the process with its claims this year or next.
The United States is not a signatory to the Law of the Sea Convention, so must wait for everyone else's claims to be adjudicated, a process that officials say could take 15 years, delaying development of its area.
But even countries with no territorial claim to the Arctic are being drawn to the region because, as the ice melts, northern shipping routes are opening between Europe and Asia that cut the distance between them by 40 percent.
A big player is expected to be China, which already has made overtures to Greenland and Iceland, seeking not just access to minerals like rare earths and energy but also ports as its extends its trade lines across the Arctic.
"Everyone is interested in the moves that China is making," said Gunhild Hoogense Gjoerv, a political scientist at the University of Tromsoe.
"I think it's interesting because so often, for so long the Arctic has been ignored," she said.
Analysts believe that as much as 70 percent of the trade that could in the future move across the Arctic between Europe and Asia will be to and from China.
Currently, that trade is tiny -- just four ships two years ago and 32 ships last year -- but some officials expect it to grow exponentially with as many as 600 to 700 ships a year by 2013.
And US officials believe that the thawing of the ice has significant military implications since more naval and air assets will be needed to protect sea lanes and other strategic interests.
Gjoerv, however, says fears of military conflict over the Arctic's riches are overblown, because so many players have a strong interest in cooperating with each other.
"Just thinking about military protection is very narrow," she said. "It just doesn't take on board all the changes that are happening here."
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Friday, June 1, 2012
Next round of UN climate talks set for Bangkok
A new round of climate talks will be held in Bangkok from August 30 to September 5 to prepare for minister-level negotiations at year end, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said on Friday.
The talks, at the level of senior officials, will take place at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), it said in a press release issued from Bonn.
The 195 parties to the UNFCCC are to meet in Doha, Qatar from November 26 to December 7 for their annual top-level parlay.
The goal is to stride towards a new global pact on the greenhouse-gas problem. The deal would be completed by 2015 and take effect from 2020.
A mid-year round of talks concluded in Bonn last week but was marked by procedural bickering and saw little progress.
The pre-Qatar meeting had been dependent on getting financial support.
'Pledges have been received from the state of Qatar, Norway, Germany, the UK, Japan and Sweden,' the UNFCCC said.
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The talks, at the level of senior officials, will take place at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), it said in a press release issued from Bonn.
The 195 parties to the UNFCCC are to meet in Doha, Qatar from November 26 to December 7 for their annual top-level parlay.
The goal is to stride towards a new global pact on the greenhouse-gas problem. The deal would be completed by 2015 and take effect from 2020.
A mid-year round of talks concluded in Bonn last week but was marked by procedural bickering and saw little progress.
The pre-Qatar meeting had been dependent on getting financial support.
'Pledges have been received from the state of Qatar, Norway, Germany, the UK, Japan and Sweden,' the UNFCCC said.
This article is brought to you by PERSONALS.
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