Sunday, December 30, 2012

We Look Back Earthily At 2012

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Twenty-twelve was quite a year of change for the planet, if not quite the apocalypse imagined by New Age shamans or Hollywood producers.





Arctic summer sea ice shattered its previous record low, and set off a storm of speculation about what an ice-free Arctic might mean for future weird weather. In a bid to counter exactly this kind of thing, a team of would-be geoengineers dumped iron in the ocean off British Columbia to prompt a plankton bloom, in hopes of boosting local salmon populations and sucking CO2 out of the air.





In a perhaps less quixotic bid, scientists continued to work on breakthroughs that could alter our dependence on fossil fuels, from using microbes to turn seaweed into biofuels to better batteries for electric cars.





Speaking of which, an electric car, the Tesla Model S, became simply the best car of the year, according to Motor Trend. Meanwhile, the human population kept growing, urbanizing and struggling to either feed itself or not overfeed itself.





Finally, there was Hurricane Sandy, which closed our offices for a week and appeared to have blown climate change back onto the American political landscape, however briefly. Judging by what happened at the United Nations climate conference in Doha, however, 2012 was not the year when the United States or the world finally did something about restraining the greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, not even CO2 capture and storage. And it doesn't look like 2013 will be either.





That said, natural gas began to supplant coal in the U.S., driving down greenhouse gas emissions. And that's a good thing. Happy New Year!-David Biello [The above text is a transcript of this podcast]










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Friday, December 28, 2012

Tigers Making Comeback in Asia

Camera trap images reveal tiger numbers rebounding across Asia, especially in southwestern India, where young tigers are leaving protected reserves due to population pressure, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society.

The WCS attributes the rise in different tiger groups to better law enforcement and protection of additional habitat. For example, a notorious poaching ring was busted in Thailand last year, and the gang leaders have been given prison sentences of up to five years - the most severe punishments for wildlife poaching in Thailand's history, the conservation group said in a statement.

Tiger numbers have been rising steadily in Thailand's Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary since 2007, with a record 50-plus tigers counted last year, the WCS said. The sanctuary is part of the country's Western Forest Complex. This core spans 7,000 square miles (18,000 square kilometers) and is home to an estimated 125 to 175 tigers.

In India's mountainous landscape of Nagarahole and Bandipur national parks, tigers have reached saturation levels, with more than 600 individuals caught on camera trap photos in the past decade. Young tigers are leaving the parks along protected corridors and entering a landscape with a population of a million people, the group said. [In Images: Tigers Rebound in Asia]

Conservationists also worked with government officials in Russia to create additional protected areas for tigers. The country declared a new corridor, called the Central Ussuri Wildlife Refuge, on Oct. 18. The refuge links the Sikhote-Alin tiger population in Russia - the main group of endangered Amur tigers- with tiger habitat in China's Heilongjiang Province in the Wandashan Mountains. The refuge ensures that tigers can move across the border between Russia and China in this region.

An estimated 3,200 tigers are living in the wild, with only 2,500 breeding adult pairs, according to TRAFFIC, a monitoring group funded by the World Wildlife Fund and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Tigers have lost 93 percent of their historical range, which once sprawled across Asia from Turkey to Russia and south to Bali, according to the group.

'Tigers are clearly fighting for their very existence, but it's important to know that there is hope. Victories like these give us the resolve to continue to battle for these magnificent big cats,' Cristián Samper, WCS president, said in a statement.

Reach Becky Oskin at boskin@techmedianetwork.com. Follow her on Twitter @beckyoskin. Follow OurAmazingPlanet on Twitter @OAPlanet. We're also on Facebook and Google+.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012

How Not 'Awesome' Was Lisa Jackson at the EPA?

After almost four years of guiding controversial decisions on fracking, the Keystone XL pipeline, and coal, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson is stepping down. Now, the hunt is on for a new director who won't be able to please anyone.

RELATED: EPA Passes New Fracking Rules

Jackson-the EPA's first African American chief and a chemical engineer by training-wrote in a statement, 'I will leave the EPA confident the ship is sailing in the right direction, and ready in my own life for new challenges, time with my family and new opportunities to make a difference.' President Obama said in a separate statement:

Under her leadership, the EPA has taken sensible and important steps to protect the air we breathe and the water we drink, including implementing the first national standard for harmful mercury pollution, taking important action to combat climate change under the Clean Air Act and playing a key role in establishing historic fuel economy standards that will save the average American family thousands of dollars at the pump, while also slashing carbon pollution.

Congressional Republicans, however, won't be sad to see her go. Caught between their hostility toward regulation and the Obama administration's lack of emphasis on climate change, Jackson was unable to nix the Keystone XL oil pipeline, a planned route for bringing tar sand oil from Canada down to Texas. When confronted on the issue, Jackson simply said that holding conversations about the project is 'awesome.' She also wasn't able to get the EPA to take meaningful action on hydraulic fracturing, even after the agency found evidence that the practice contributes to groundwater pollution.

RELATED: EPA Proposes First Fracking-Related Pollution Rules

Among her successes, Jackson can count a rule limiting mercury emissions in coal-fired plants and the doubling of fuel efficiency standards. It remains to be seen whether the EPA's deputy administrator Robert Perciasepe-who looks prepped to take the reigns in the interim and potentially as full-time Administrator later on-can do any better.



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Britain suspends exploratory drilling of Antarctic lake

LONDON (Reuters) - An ambitious British plan to search for minute forms of life in an ancient lake beneath Antarctica's ice has been suspended because of technical problems, the scientist leading the project said on Thursday.

In a move that clears the way for U.S. and Russian teams to take the lead, Professor Martin Siegert said technical problems and a lack of fuel had forced the closure on Christmas Day of the 7-million-pound ($11 million) project, which was looking for life forms and climate change clues in the lake-bed sediment.

'This is of course, hugely frustrating for us, but we have learned a lot this year,' said Siegert of the University of Bristol, principal investigator for the mission, which was headed by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

'By the end, the equipment was working well, and much of it has now been fully field-tested,' he said on the BAS website.

Experts from Britain's Lake Ellsworth mission had expected to find minute forms of life in the lake three km (two miles) under Antarctica's ice, the most remote and extreme environment known on Earth.

They had also hoped that by dating bits of seashell found in the water they would have been able to ascertain when the ice sheet last broke up and to better understand the risks of it happening again.

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION

Scientists from the United States and Russia are hot on Britain's heels when it comes to drilling through Antarctic ice to lakes that have been hidden for thousands of years.

The U.S. team is aiming to start drilling in Lake Whillans, one of 360 known sub-glacial lakes in Antarctica, in January or February 2013.

Russia was the first to pierce 3,769 meters (12,365 ft) of solid ice to reach Lake Vostok early in 2012. But some scientists believe their samples may have been contaminated by drilling fluids.

The British scientists decided to abandon the mission after trying for 20 hours to connect two holes in the ice that were needed for the hot-water drill to work, said a BAS spokeswoman.

Without a connection between the two holes, the hot water would seep into the porous surface layers of ice and be lost, reducing the pressure and rendering the drill ineffective.

The team tried to melt and dig more snow to compensate for the water loss, but without success.

As a result of the extra time taken to fix the problem, fuel stocks had been depleted to such a level as to make the operation unviable.

Asked how long the delay might be before the project could be resumed, Siegert told the BBC: 'It will take a season or two to get all our equipment out of Antarctica and back to the UK, so at a minimum we're looking at three to four, maybe five years I would have thought.'

However, he said he felt this year's mission had not been a complete loss.

The BAS spokeswoman said: 'It's very possible that either the U.S. or Russia may take the lead but I think the one thing we've learned here is that anything can go wrong.'

'We've never depicted this as a race. All sub-glacial lakes would give different information,' she said.

(Editing by Andrew Osborn)

Climate Model Coverage: Far from Model Journalism







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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Erratic Environment May Be Key to Human Evolution

At Olduvai Gorge, where excavations helped to confirm Africa was the cradle of humanity, scientists now find the landscape once fluctuated rapidly, likely guiding early human evolution.These findings suggest that key mental developments within the human lineage may have been linked with a highly variable environment, researchers added.

Olduvai Gorge is a ravine cut into the eastern margin of the Serengeti Plain in northern Tanzania that holds fossils of hominins - members of the human lineage. Excavations at Olduvai Gorge by Louis and Mary Leakey in the mid-1950s helped to establish the African origin of humanity.

The Great Drying?

To learn more about the roots of humanity, scientists analyzed samples of leaf waxes preserved in lake sediments at Olduvai Gorge, identifying which plants dominated the local environment around 2 million years ago. This was about when Homo erectus, a direct ancestor of modern humans who used relatively advanced stone tools, appeared.

'We looked at leaf waxes, because they're tough, they survive well in the sediment,' researcher Katherine Freeman, a biogeochemist at Pennsylvania State University, said in a statement.

After four years of work, the researchers focused on carbon isotopes - atoms of the same element with different numbers of neutrons - in the samples, which can reveal what plants reigned over an area. The grasses that dominate savannasengage in a kind of photosynthesis that involves both normal carbon-12 and heavier carbon-13, while trees and shrubs rely on a kind of photosynthesis that prefers carbon-12. (Atoms of carbon-12 each possess six neutrons, while atoms of carbon-13 have seven.)

Scientists had long thought Africa went through a period of gradually increasing dryness - called the Great Drying - over 3 million years, or perhaps one big change in climate that favored the expansion of grasslands across the continent, influencing human evolution. However, the new research instead revealed 'strong evidence for dramatic ecosystem changes across the African savanna, in which open grassland landscapes transitioned to closed forests over just hundreds to several thousands of years,' researcher Clayton Magill, a biogeochemist at Pennsylvania State University, told LiveScience. [Know Your Roots? Take Our Human Evolution Quiz]

The researchers discovered that Olduvai Gorge abruptly and routinely fluctuated between dry grasslands and damp forests about five or six times during a period of 200,000 years.

'I was surprised by the magnitude of changes and the rapid pace of the changes we found,' Freeman told LiveScience. 'There was a complete restructuring of the ecosystem from grassland to forest and back again, at least based on how we interpret the data. I've worked on carbon isotopes my whole career, and I've never seen anything like this before.'

Losing water

The investigators also constructed a highly detailed record of water history in Olduvai Gorge by analyzing hydrogen isotope ratios in plant waxes and other compounds in nearby lake sediments. These findings support the carbon isotope data, suggesting the region experienced fluctuations in aridity, with dry periods dominated by grasslands and wet periods characterized by expanses of woody cover.

'The research points to the importance of water in an arid landscape like Africa,' Magill said in a statement. 'The plants are so intimately tied to the water that if you have water shortages, they usually lead to food insecurity.'

The research team's statistical and mathematical models link the changes they see with other events at the time, such as alterations in the planet's movement. [50 Amazing Facts About Earth]

'The orbit of the Earth around the sun slowly changes with time,' Freeman said in statement. 'These changes were tied to the local climate at Olduvai Gorge through changes in the monsoon system in Africa.'

Earth's orbit around the sun can vary over time in a number of ways - for instance, Earth's orbit around the sun can grow more or less circular over time, and Earth's axis of spin relative to the sun's equatorial plane can also tilt back and forth. This alters the amount of sunlight Earth receives, energy that drives Earth's atmosphere. 'Slight changes in the amount of sunshine changed the intensity of atmospheric circulation and the supply of water. The rain patterns that drive the plant patterns follow this monsoon circulation. We found a correlation between changes in the environment and planetary movement.'

The team also found links between changes at Olduvai Gorge and sea-surface temperatures in the tropics.

'We find complementary forcing mechanisms - one is the way Earth orbits, and the other is variation in ocean temperatures surrounding Africa,' Freeman said.

These findings now shed light on the environmental shifts the ancestors of modern humans might have had to adapt to in order to survive and thrive.

'Early humans went from having trees available to having only grasses available in just 10 to 100 generations, and their diets would have had to change in response,' Magill said in a statement. 'Changes in food availability, food type, or the way you get food can trigger evolutionary mechanisms to deal with those changes. The result can be increased brain size and cognition, changes in locomotion and even social changes - how you interact with others in a group.'

This variability in the environment coincided with a key period in human evolution, 'when the genus Homo was first established and when there was first evidence of tool use,' Magill said.

The researchers now hope to examine changes at Olduvai Gorge not just across time but space, which could help shed light on aspects of early human evolution such as foraging patterns.

Magill, Freeman and their colleague Gail Ashley detailed their findings online Dec. 24 in two papers in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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Monday, December 24, 2012

The Hottest Climate Change Stories of 2012

Global warming was hot news this year, literally.

Perhaps the most unavoidable climate story of 2012 was the warmth that gripped much of the United States, and to a lesser degree, the planet, throughout the entire year. Heat waves brought 'spring in March' to parts of the country, and broke all-time high-temperature records in a number of places. This, inevitably, led to a discussion of global warming and the degree to which it contributes to some types of extreme weather, in this case heat waves.

In fact, prominent climate scientist James Hansen, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and colleagues published research saying recent heat waves 'were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.' Some other climate scientists, however, disagreed about the degree to which heat waves can be attributed to climate change.

Meanwhile, many of the top climate stories this year have become something like annual rites recently, as people around the world grapple with human-caused climate change, and attempt to address it and its effects. [7 Hottest Climate Change Stories of 2012]

Natural disasters, such as Hurricane Sandy (actually a hybrid storm) this year like others last year, have sparked discussion of the connection between climate change and increased risk for some extreme weather events. A majority of Americans also seem to be making the connection between extreme weather and climate change, according to surveys by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.

In reality, attributing any single weather event to global warming is tricky, though some scientists said the planet's increasing temperatures may have worsened Sandy. 'The climate influences on this are what we might call the 'new normal,' the changed environment this storm is operating in,' Kevin Trenberth, who heads the climate analysis section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told LiveScience at the end of October. For instance, the warmer ocean surfaces - which fuel hurricanes - may increase the risk that a storm will become more intense, Trenberth said. In addition, rising sea levels worsen the risk of flooding, the cause of much of the devastation Sandy wrought.

Likewise, global climate talks moved forward slowly, as they have in the last few years, against warnings that nations must curb the planet's rising greenhouse gas emissions or face dramatic consequences.

This year also brought some milestones. Arctic sea-ice cover retreated to a record low in September. As with unusually warming temperatures, the record sea-ice retreat did not come out of the blue. In recent years, the sea-ice cover has fallen below the average extent for 1979 to 2000, and, likewise, the first decade of this century was the warmest decade ever recorded in all continents of the globe, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

Scientists who study sea ice have blamed a combination of natural fluctuations and human-caused warming for the increased loss of ice, although some differ as to how much humans have contributed, Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist who studies climate at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, said in September.

Early in the year, the United States, once the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, saw its carbon-dioxide emissions from energy use drop to the lowest level since 1992, a decline the Department of Energy attributed to a mild winter, a shift from coal to natural gas and a slow economy. In 2011, the United States contributed 16 percent to the world's emissions from fossil fuel use, behind the 28 percent contribution from the top emitter, now China, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project.

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Sunday, December 23, 2012

Maya Civilization Provides A Real Apocalyptic Lesson

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You survived the Mayan apocalypse, or at least transitioned to the next baktun, number 14 according to the Mayan calendar. But what real lessons does this ancient culture hold?





First and foremost, the Maya are a case study in adaptation. Their complex civilization of powerful city-states collapsed, and the jungle retook those urban centers. But the Mayan people endured, today being the principle ethnic population of parts of Mexico, Guatemala and Belize.





European invaders did not end the era of the Mayan city-state. Although it was descendants of those Europeans who came up with this apocalypse mumbo-jumbo.





Research shows that what laid low Mayan society was something more insidious: climate change. A subtle shift in weather patterns brought less rain and the Mayan civilization was simply unable to cope with a prolonged dry period punctuated by several severe droughts.





Given that our highly complex civilization is also facing climate change, it might make sense to look back to the Maya for a glimpse of our future. Today much of the former Mayan city-states are nature preserves, dotted by ruins. Will we do better when faced with crippling and long-lasting drought in this, the 14th baktun?





-David Biello





[The above text is a transcript of this podcast]







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Saturday, December 22, 2012

Federal government lists 2 ice seals as threatened

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Two types of ice seals joined polar bears Friday on the list of species threatened by the loss of sea ice, which scientists say reached record low levels this year due to climate warming.

Ringed seals, the main prey of polar bears, and bearded seals in the Arctic Ocean will be listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced.

A species is threatened if it's likely to become endangered within the foreseeable future throughout a significant portion of its range.

The listing of the seals came after federal scientists did an extensive review of scientific and commercial data. It has no effect on subsistence hunting by Alaska Natives.

'They concluded that a significant decrease in sea ice is probable later this century, and that these changes will likely cause these seal populations to decline,' said Jon Kurland, protected resources director for NOAA Fisheries' Alaska region.

Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell late Friday called the science behind the decision speculative and said the state will consider legal action. The state unsuccessfully challenged the polar bear listing.

The ringed seal population is in the millions and the bearded seal population is in the hundreds of thousands, Parnell said in a prepared statement. Neither is in decline nor will it be by mid-century, he said.

'The ESA was not enacted to protect healthy animal populations,' Parnell said. 'Despite this fact, the NMFS continues the federal government's misguided policy to list healthy species based mostly on speculated impacts from future climate change, adding additional regulatory burdens and costs upon the State of Alaska and its communities.'

Ringed seals are the only seals that thrive in completely ice-covered Arctic waters. They use stout claws to dig and maintain breathing holes.

When snow covers those holes, females excavate and make snow caves, where they give birth to pups that cannot survive in ice-cold water and are susceptible to freezing until they grow a blubber layer.

Hungry polar bears often catch breeding females or pups by collapsing lairs.

Decreased snowfall, or rain falling on lairs instead of snow, is a threat to seal survival, the agency said.

Bearded seals, named for their thick whiskers, give birth and rear pups on drifting pack ice over shallow water where prey such as crab is abundant. When females give birth, they need ice to last long enough in the spring and early summer to successfully reproduce and molt.

The projected retreat of sea ice from shallow shelves decreases food availability, the listing petition said.

The listing is a major victory in efforts to save the animals because of the additional protections provided under the Endangered Species Act, said Shaye Wolf of the Center for Biological Diversity, who wrote the petition leading to the listing consideration.

'The seals need all the help that they can get,' she said by phone from San Francisco.

The development, however, is bittersweet, she said. While the Obama administration has acknowledged the threat, not enough is being done to limit greenhouse gas pollution behind the loss of sea ice, she said.

The NOAA Fisheries decision affects four subspecies of ringed seals around the world. Arctic Ocean seals off Alaska's coast and seals on the Okhotsk and Baltic seas were listed as threatened. A subspecies in Lake Ladoga in northwest Russia was listed as endangered.

The listing covered two subspecies of bearded seals: the Beringia population, which includes Alaska, and bearded seals in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Designation of critical habitat for the seals will be considered later.

The agency said the listing decision will not mean any immediate restrictions on human activities.

It does mean that federal agencies that issue permits or pay for projects that might affect a threatened species must consult with NOAA Fisheries to make sure activities do not jeopardize the animals.



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Friday, December 21, 2012

FDA closer to approving biotech salmon, critics furious

(Reuters) - A controversial genetically engineered salmon has moved a step closer to the consumer's dining table after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said Friday the fish didn't appear likely to pose a threat to the environment or to humans who eat it.

AquAdvantage salmon eggs would produce fish with the potential to grow to market size in half the time of conventional salmon. If it gets a final go-ahead, it would be the first food from a transgenic animal - one whose genome has been altered - to be approved by the FDA.

The AquAdvantage Atlantic salmon egg was developed by AquaBounty Technology to speed up production to meet global seafood demand.

In a draft environmental assessment, the FDA affirmed earlier findings that the biotech salmon was not likely to be harmful. It said it would take comments from the public on its report for 60 days before making a final decision on approval.

'With respect to food safety, FDA has concluded that food from AquAdvantage salmon is as safe as food from conventional Atlantic salmon, and that there is a reasonable certainty of no harm from consumption,' the FDA assessment states.

AquaBounty officials said they were caught by surprise by the news that its product was a step closer to approval as years of controversy had followed the company's application for a go-ahead from the regulator. They said they did not know the timing or details of the process the FDA will follow following the 60-day comment period.

'We are encouraged that the environmental assessment is being released and hope the government continues the science-based regulatory process,' said AquaBounty Chief Executive Ronald Stotish.

Critics say the new salmon is a 'dangerous experiment' and have pressured the FDA to reject it. They say the FDA has relied on outdated science and substandard methods for assessing the new fish.

'We are deeply concerned that the potential of these fish to cause allergic reactions has not been adequately researched,' said Michael Hansen, a scientist at the Consumers Union. 'FDA has allowed this fish to move forward based on tests of allergenicity of only six engineered fish, tests that actually did show an increase in allergy-causing potential.'

There were also concerns the FDA would not require the genetically modified salmon to be labeled as such, and some critics said they may file a lawsuit to prevent what they fear could be the imminent approval of the engineered fish.

'Congress can still keep FDA from unleashing this dangerous experiment,' said Wenonah Hauter, executive director of Food & Water Watch, a consumer advocacy group. 'Although this latest FDA decision is a blow to consumer confidence, we encourage everyone to contact their members of Congress and demand this reckless decision be overturned.'

The Center for Food Safety, another non-profit consumer protection group, was highly critical of the FDA report, and officials said they might sue the regulator over the issue.

'It is extremely disappointing that the Obama Administration continues to push approval of this dangerous and unnecessary product,' said Andrew Kimbrell, executive director of the Center for Food Safety. 'The GE salmon has no socially redeeming value. It's bad for the consumer, bad for the salmon industry and bad for the environment.'

FDA spokeswoman Morgan Liscinsky said no final decisions have been made on labeling or on the application for approval.

'The release of these materials is not a decision on whether food from AquAdvantage Salmon requires additional labeling; nor is it a decision on the new animal drug application currently under review. It also does not provide a final food safety determination,' Liscinsky said.

The AquAdvantage salmon would be an all-female population with eggs produced in a facility on Prince Edward Island in Canada and shipped to a 'grow-out facility' in Panama, where they would be reared to market size and harvested for processing.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum; and Peter Galloway)

Could Climate Change Boost Toxic Algal Blooms in the Oceans?





In 1799 about a hundred Aleut hunters working for a Russian-American trading group died in Alaska's Peril Strait only two hours after eating black mussels collected there. Those who survived did so because they threw up after desperately consuming gunpowder, tobacco and alcohol to purge toxin from their bodies. This was the first recorded incidence of paralytic shellfish poisoning on the west coast of North America.





The Aleuts were killed by natural poisons known as toxins produced by certain algae that were trapped in the mussels' food-gathering filters. Filter feeders like shellfish, some finned fish and other animals concentrate the toxins present in these algae.





Physical and chemical conditions cause populations of algae to wax and wane in cycles. Out of the vast diversity of plankton in the oceans, the worst offenders are a few species of diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria, collectively called harmful algae. For example, some diatoms make domoic acid, which causes vomiting, cramping, headache and even seizures and memory loss; some dinoflagellates produce saxitoxin, which causes numbness, staggering and respiratory failure, among other symptoms.





Toxic blooms can occur naturally when deep, nutrient-rich water wells up in places like the west coasts of North and South America. They can be amplified by land runoff of fertilizers and other chemicals that provide nutrients such as phosphorus. Algal blooms have been increasing in coastal waters nearly everywhere.





In mid-December 2012 recreational mussel harvesting was closed along the entire Oregon coast because the mussels were contaminated with paralytic shellfish toxins. In 2002 razor clam harvesting was prohibited for the full season in Washington State because of high domoic acid levels. Florida's coastline has frequent outbreaks of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, whose toxins can escape into the air and cause severe respiratory distress. Today in the U.S. alone such incidents cause $82 million in public health costs and economic damages to fisheries and tourism annually, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These costs include emergency room visits and other medical treatment, lost work productivity, and fewer dollars reaching local businesses if beaches and sport or commercial fishing is curtailed.





Now scientists are investigating whether climate change could contribute to toxic blooms. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the greenhouse gas is absorbed into ocean water, making it more acidic. The most obvious peril is that marine organisms like clams and sea snails either can't build their calcium carbonate shells or find their housing harder to maintain. Acidifying ocean conditions could cause toxic algae to become nastier and more abundant. Conversely, the organisms might simply adapt without becoming more poisonous; their numbers could even be reduced.





Of course, researchers must assess ocean acidification as one of many simultaneous stressors in the oceanic environment. Scientists don't fully understand the relationship between growth rates, toxin production and ocean conditions for these algae. Some species are known to ramp-up toxin production as a defense against predators, others in response to low supplies of crucial nutrients. Another possibility is that the toxins are simply a way for a diatom or dinoflagellate to store excess nutrients, such as carbon or nitrogen, rather than a stress response, says microbial ecologist William Cochlan of San Francisco State University.





To see how nutrient limitation and acidification interact, Avery Tatters, a graduate student in David Hutchins's lab at the University of Southern California, cultured the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia fraudulenta taken from southern California waters, where it blooms frequently. The species produces domoic acid.



Tatters and colleagues varied the amount of dissolved CO2 and the availability of the silicate the diatoms use to make their shells. In a presentation at a recent ocean acidification conference, Tatters reported that the more CO2 and the less silicate, the higher the diatom's toxin production-more than doubling at the level of dissolved CO2 scientists expect the oceans to reach by 2100. Earlier research by the Hutchins lab found a fourfold increase in toxicity under limited phosphorus and increased CO2 in a related species.





However, Cochlan cautions, what exactly triggers toxic blooms is "the million-dollar question" that hasn't been answered. Sometimes algae produce more toxins "when they are growing very well," he says.





Water temperature may also be a factor. Anke Kremp, a researcher at the Finnish Environment Institute, reported in a January 2012 study that eight strains of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii grew at very different rates under increased acidity and higher temperatures. The amount of toxin in each cell didn't always increase, but the composition of the toxic compounds consistently changed as temperature and acidity increased.





A. ostenfeldii can make several nasty chemicals, and the overall trend in Kremp's study was toward more saxitoxin-the most potent compound in its arsenal. Although this may be bad news for the Baltic Sea and other areas plagued by this dinoflagellate, Kremp also noted that the short duration of most lab studies limits what we can know about how toxic algae may evolve over the next century.





Further, NOAA researcher Vera Trainer says that although some species may become more toxic, there may not be a net increase in risk to humans and other consumers of seafood. If the more harmful species become less numerous, she says, "It's sort of a moot point." But if they become more toxic and more numerous, she adds, "you've got a double whammy."





These conundrums illustrate how little we know. The different genetic heritages of diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria will affect their survival. And in addition to temperature, other physical factors like available light and even large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions like the El Niño-La Niña oscillation can affect plankton behavior.





"The work is really at an early stage," says Ulf Riebesell, a professor of biological oceanography at the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany. But it is fair to say that as algae and other tiny ocean species solve new survival problems, they may force us to do the same.







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Thursday, December 20, 2012

Walking Catfish, Demon Bat Among 126 New Mekong Species

Beelzebub's bat, a walking catfish and a frog that sounds like a bird are among 126 species introduced to science in just a year in the incredibly diverse Greater Mekong region of Southeast Asia, according to a report released this week by the conservation group World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

The walking catfish - one of the 10 discoveries from 2011 highlighted in the report - doesn't exactly walk. But the fish (Clarias gracilentus) can impressively wiggle across dry land like a snake while using its pectoral fins to push itself upright. The fish, discovered in streams on the Vietnamese island of Phu Quoc, often lives in stagnant waters. When these pools dry up, it can walk away to a wetter home.

Among other fish found in 2011 were a rose-tinted, blind carp (Bangana musaei) that lives in subterranean caves and a miniature fish (Boraras naevus) that's just 0.75 inches (2 centimeters) in length and marked by a large dark spot on its vibrant body, the report says.

Researchers also discovered last year a tiny demonic-looking creature appropriately named Beelzebub's tube-nosed bat (Murina beelzebub). [The 10 Weirdest Animal Discoveries of 2012]

'We chose the name Beelzebub to reflect the dark 'diabolic' coloration of the new species and its fierce protective behaviour in the field,' Gabor Csorba, of the Hungarian Natural History Museum, said in a statement. The bat is found only in the tropical forests of Vietnam and is among two other tube-nosed bats identified in 2011.

And then there's Quang's tree frog (Gracixalus quangi), whose calls rival those of birds in their complexity, and the rare ruby-eyed green pit viper (Trimeresurus rubeus), which has striking red eyes and a very limited range that includes Vietnam's Cat Tien National Park.

'Very few people in the world have seen this snake,' Anita Malhotra, a molecular ecologist at Bangor University, said of the species. 'We know very little about what it does.'

Conservationists warn that the astonishing biodiversity of the region is under threat because of shrinking habitats. According to the WWF report, 30 percent of the Greater Mekong's forests have disappeared in just four decades. Fish could be especially vulnerable, and the report points to planned construction of the Xayaburi dam in Laos as a major risk.

'The Mekong River supports levels of aquatic biodiversity second only to the Amazon River,' Nick Cox, manager of the WWF species program in the region, said in a statement. 'The Xayaburi dam would prove an impassable barrier for many fish species, signalling the demise for wildlife already known and as yet undiscovered.'

More than 1,700 new species have been described by science in the Greater Mekong since 1997. In 2011, 82 plants, 13 fish, 21 reptiles, five amphibians and five mammals were discovered.

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Friday, December 14, 2012

Windows 8 chief thinks the 'vast majority' of PCs will have touch screens going forward

Get used to touching your PC screen. In an interview with Technology Review, Windows product development chief Julie Larson-Green said that the days when PCs were simply keyboard-and-mouse operations are over and that touch will be an integral part of the PC experience going forward.

[More from BGR: RIM shows how BlackBerry 10 touch screen keys could rival even its traditional keyboards [video]]

"For cost considerations there might always be some computers without touch, but I believe that the vast majority will," she said. "We're seeing that the computers with touch are the fastest-selling right now. I can't imagine a computer without touch anymore. Once you've experienced it, it's really hard to go back."

[More from BGR: Has the iPhone peaked? Apple's iPhone 4S seen outselling iPhone 5]

Microsoft's (MSFT) Surface tablet was the first Windows product to integrate touch capabilities but it has received fairly mixed reviews, and reports suggest that sales have been middling so far. Even so, it's hard to argue that touch screens have become a staple of computing so it's not surprising that Microsoft has decided to go all-in on touch capabilities for its next generation of personal computers.


This article was originally published by BGR



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Microsoft says adapting to Windows 8 takes at most two weeks

Windows 8 obviously takes some getting used to - and trying it for the first time after slugging down tequila is obviously a bad idea - but Microsoft (MSFT) says that concerns about whether users will adapt have been vastly overblown. The company shared some data with Technology Review showing that users typically become accustomed to the new operating system over a span of "two days to two weeks." Julie Larson-Green, Microsoft's Windows product development chief, tells Technology Review that there's a period of "around six weeks" where users start to gravitate away from more traditional Windows features they're comfortable with and start using more of the touch-based features in Windows 8.

[More from BGR: Has the iPhone peaked? Apple's iPhone 4S seen outselling iPhone 5]

But even if Microsoft's data is correct, that doesn't mean everything is dandy for Windows 8. UI expert Jakob Nielsen, who previously accused Windows 8 of leaving users "dazed and confused," tells Technology Review that the only thing Microsoft's numbers prove is that it's possible that "people can learn to use Windows 8 to a level where they aren't constantly stumped after two weeks." But even after they get out of their "totally stumped" phase, Nielsen says that the operating system will slow down their productivity compared to earlier versions of Windows.

[More from BGR: Sony's PlayStation 4 could lose to the next Xbox before it's even released]

"My estimate is that power users will not have higher productivity with Windows 8 than they did with Windows 7," he says. "I fear that they will have lower productivity."


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AP-GfK Poll: Science doubters say world is warming

WASHINGTON (AP) - A growing majority of Americans think global warming is occurring, that it will become a serious problem and that the U.S. government should do something about it, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds.

Even most people who say they don't trust scientists on the environment say temperatures are rising.

The poll found 4 out of every 5 Americans said climate change will be a serious problem for the United States if nothing is done about it. That's up from 73 percent when the same question was asked in 2009.

And 57 percent of Americans say the U.S. government should do a great deal or quite a bit about the problem. That's up from 52 percent in 2009. Only 22 percent of those surveyed think little or nothing should be done, a figure that dropped from 25 percent.

Overall, 78 percent of those surveyed said they believe temperatures are rising, up from 75 percent three years earlier. In general, U.S. belief in global warming, according to AP-GfK and other polls, has fluctuated over the years but has stayed between about 70 and 85 percent.

The biggest change in the polling is among people who trust scientists only a little or not at all. About 1 in 3 of the people surveyed fell into that category.

Within that highly skeptical group, 61 percent now say temperatures have been rising over the past 100 years. That's a substantial increase from 2009, when the AP-GfK poll found that only 47 percent of those with little or no trust in scientists believed the world was getting warmer.

This is an important development because, often in the past, opinion about climate change doesn't move much in core groups - like those who deny it exists and those who firmly believe it's an alarming problem, said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University social psychologist and pollster. Krosnick, who consulted with The Associated Press on the poll questions, said the changes the poll shows aren't in the hard-core 'anti-warming' deniers, but in the next group, who had serious doubts.

'They don't believe what the scientists say, they believe what the thermometers say,' Krosnick said. 'Events are helping these people see what scientists thought they had been seeing all along.'

Phil Adams, a retired freelance photographer from Washington, N.C., said he was 'fairly cynical' about scientists and their theories. But he believes very much in climate change because of what he's seen with his own eyes.

'Having lived for 67 years, we consistently see more and more changes based upon the fact that the weather is warmer,' he said. 'The seasons are more severe. The climate is definitely getting warmer.'

'Storms seem to be more severe,' he added. Nearly half, 49 percent, of those surveyed called global warming not just serious but 'very serious,' up from 42 percent in 2009. More than half, 57 percent, of those surveyed thought the U.S. government should do a great deal or quite a bit about global warming, up from 52 percent three years earlier.

But only 45 percent of those surveyed think President Barack Obama will take major action to fight climate change in his second term, slightly more than the 41 percent who don't think he will act.

Overall, the 78 percent who think temperatures are rising is not the highest percentage of Americans who have believed in climate change, according to AP polling. In 2006, less than a year after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, 85 percent thought temperatures were rising. The lowest point in the past 15 years for belief in warming was in December 2009, after some snowy winters and in the middle of an uproar about climate scientists' emails that later independent investigations found showed no manipulation of data.

Broken down by political party, 83 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans say the world is getting warmer. And 77 percent of independents say temperatures are rising. Among scientists who write about the issue in peer-reviewed literature, the belief in global warming is about 97 percent, according to a 2010 scientific study.

About 1 in 4 people surveyed think that efforts to curb global warming would hurt the American economy, a figure down slightly from 27 percent in 2009 when the economy was in worse shape. Just under half, 46 percent, think such action would help the U.S. economy, about the same as said so three years ago.

The AP-GfK poll was conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 3 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,002 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; the margin of error is larger for subgroups.

The latest AP-GfK poll jibes with other surveys and more in-depth research on global warming, said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of Yale University's Project on Climate Change Communication. He took no part in the poll.

When climate change belief was at its lowest, concerns about the economy were heightened and the country had gone through some incredible snowstorms and that may have chipped away at some belief in global warming, Leiserowitz said. Now the economy is better and the weather is warmer and worse in ways that seem easier to connect to climate change, he said.

'One extreme event after another after another,' Leiserowitz said. 'People have noticed. ... They're connecting the dots between climate change and this long bout of extreme weather themselves.'

Thomas Coffey, 77, of Houston, said you can't help but notice it.

'We use to have mild temperatures in the fall going into winter months. Now, we have summer temperatures going into winter,' Coffey said. 'The whole Earth is getting warmer and when it gets warmer, the ice cap is going to melt and the ocean is going to rise.'

He also said that's what he thinks is causing recent extreme weather.

'That's why you see New York and New Jersey,' he said, referring to Superstorm Sandy and its devastation in late October. 'When you have a flood like that, flooding tunnels like that. And look at how long the tunnel has been there.'

___

Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report.

___

Online:

The poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears



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Human link to climate change stronger than ever: draft report

LONDON (Reuters) - International climate scientists are more certain than ever that humans are responsible for global warming, rising sea levels and extreme weather events, according to a leaked draft report by an influential panel of experts.

The early draft, which is still subject to change before a final version is released in late 2013, showed that a rise in global average temperatures since pre-industrial times was set to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, and may reach 4.8 Celsius.

'It is extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperatures since the 1950s,' the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) draft report said.

'Extremely likely' in the IPCC's language means a level of certainty of at least 95 percent. The next level is 'virtually certain', or 99 percent, the greatest possible certainty for the scientists.

The IPCC's previous report, in 2007, said it was at least 90 percent certain that human activities, led by burning fossil fuels, were the cause of rising temperatures.

The draft was shown on a climate change skeptic blog.

The IPCC said the unauthorized, premature posting of the draft may lead to confusion because the report was still work in progress and was likely to change before it is released.

A United Nations conference last week aimed at curbing emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warning yielded no progress and three countries - Canada, Russia and Japan - have abandoned the Kyoto Protocol limiting the emissions.

The United States never ratified it in the first place, and it excludes developing countries where emissions are growing most quickly.

Countries agreed to extend Kyoto to 2020, but only those covering less than 15 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions signed up. Developing nations said they would push next year for a radical U.N. mechanism to compensate them for the impact of climate change.

The IPCC said it had 'high confidence' that human activity had caused large-scale changes in oceans, in ice sheets or mountain glaciers, and in sea levels in the second half of the twentieth century, according to the draft.

It said some extreme weather events had also changed due to human influences.

THREAT TO CITIES

The draft's scenarios forecast a rise in temperatures of between 0.2 and 4.8 Celsius this century - a narrower band than in 2007. But in almost all of the scenarios, the rise would exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

Governments pledged in 2010 to try to stop global temperatures rising by more than 2 degrees, a threshold seen by scientists as the maximum to avoid more extreme weather, droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were the highest in 800,000 years, according to the draft report.

The draft also said that sea levels were likely to rise by between 29 and 82 centimeters by the end of the century - compared to 18-59 centimeters projected in the 2007 report.

Rising sea levels are a threat to people living in low-lying areas, from Bangladesh to the cities of New York, London and Buenos Aires. They open up the risk of storm surges, coastal erosion and, in the worst case scenario, the complete swamping of large areas of land.

The IPCC carries weight because it brings together all scientific research on climate change and informs policymakers.

Many countries want to study the final IPCC report before signing up to a new global pact to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The draft included a possible future acceleration of ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland, which was omitted in 2007. It stopped short of including some research carried out since 2007 that suggested seas may rise by up to 2 meters by 2100.

(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)



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EU agency rejects Sanofi, Isis cholesterol drug

LONDON (Reuters) - European regulators on Friday recommended against approval of Sanofi and Isis Pharmaceutical's drug Kynamro for treatment of a rare genetic disorder that causes unusually high cholesterol.

The European Medicines Agency said it was concerned about the medicine's safety, noting that a high proportion of patients stopped taking it within two years, mainly due to side effects such as flu-like symptoms, injection site reactions and liver toxicity.

The European rebuff contrasts with a green light for the drug, known generically as mipomersen, by a U.S. advisory panel in October.

Sanofi's Genzyme unit said it was disappointed by the decision and planned to request a re-examination.

(Reporting by Ben Hirschler)



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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Nearly four in 10 U.S. residents blame weather on "end times"

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Nearly four in 10 U.S. residents say the severity of recent natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy is evidence the world is coming to an end, as predicted by the Bible, while more than six in 10 blame it on climate change, according to a poll released on Thursday.

The survey by the Public Religion Research Institute in partnership with the Religion News Service found political and religious disagreement on what is behind severe weather, which this year has included extreme heat and drought.

Most Catholics (60 percent) and white non-evangelical Protestants (65 percent) say they believe disasters like hurricanes and floods are the result of climate change.

But nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of white evangelical Protestants say they think the storms are evidence of the 'end times' as predicted by the Bible.

Overall, 36 percent point to end times and 63 percent to climate change.

PRRI research director Daniel Cox said that some respondents - including 75 percent of non-white Protestants - believe extreme weather is both evidence of end times and the result of climate change.

'No one really knows how (end times) would look and how God would bring it about,' Cox said.

Politics also color perceptions of the weather, the survey found. More than three-quarters of Democrats and six in 10 independents believe that the weather has become more extreme over the last few years, while less than half of Republicans say they have perceived such a shift.

'Their political leanings are even affecting how they experience weather, which is pretty fascinating,' said Cox.

The January-to-November period in the United States this year was the warmest first 11 months of any year on record for the contiguous states. And 2012 will likely surpass 1998 as the warmest year on record for the nation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

CALL FOR ACTION

Most climate scientists believe that the warming trend for the nation and the world is tied to human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels.

Extreme storms like Sandy, along with more intense droughts, wildfires and floods, are projected by some as the result of climate change, though scientists are reluctant to attribute individual events to global warming.

The PRRI survey found that while there is disagreement about the causes of global warming, there is widespread agreement about the need for action.

Two-thirds of Americans say the U.S. government should do more to address climate change - including most of those who believe global warming is due to natural weather patterns, the survey found.

It also found that 15 percent of Americans believe that the end of the world, as predicted by the New Testament's Book of Revelation, will occur in their lifetime. Some 2 percent believe that the end of the world, as predicted by the ancient Mayans, will occur by the end of this year.

Some people who say they believe in end times do not act on that belief in their everyday lives, said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

'I think that's their way of expressing a deep commitment to Biblical literalism,' said Jillson. 'If you sat down with them and said, 'Do you really think that within the next few years we'll experience the end times?' they probably don't ... . A good number of these people are saving for retirement.'

The survey of 1,018 adults was conducted between December 5 and December 9. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

(Reporting By Mary Wisniewski; Editing by Greg McCune and Xavier Briand)



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More Snow Could Mean Less Ice for Antarctic

Increased snowfall that's expected in Antarctica as the climate warms is likely to send more ice into the sea, new research finds. The effect is so strong that additional sea-level rise caused by extra snowfall is greater than the rise caused by extra heat melting the ice directly.

The new study comes shortly after a recent analysis found that ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica has contributed nearly a half-inch to sea-level rise since 1992. Antarctic ice sheets once thought protected from melting are also more vulnerable than expected, researchers reported in May.

Antarctica's response to climate change has always been uncertain, in part because a warming atmosphere can hold more moisture than a cooler one. More moisture is expected to bring more snow to Antarctica, which could potentially offset the melting of ice caused by warmer air and ocean water.

Now, that offset doesn't look so likely. Ricarda Winkelmann and her colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany used computer modeling to look at how the Antarctic would respond to various climate-warming scenarios. They found that greater snowfall actually enhances ice loss rather than offsetting it.

'Our simulations under future climate scenarios show that between 30 percent and 65 percent of the ice gain from enhanced snowfall are compensated by an increase of ice loss,' Winkelmann told LiveScience.

The reason: When snow falls, it increases the elevation of the land or ice it falls on. In Antarctica, snow falling on the floating ice shelves weighs them down, making them sink more heavily in the water. The land doesn't have that type of elasticity, so the same amount of snowfall on the landmass of Antarctica causes 10 times the elevation change as on floating ice.

The result is a steep slope from land to ice, the natural equivalent of a Slip 'n Slide for Antarctica's ice. Ice flows faster from the continent toward the sea, resulting in sea-level rise. [Ice World: Gallery of Awe-Inspiring Glaciers]

How bad this is depends on how warm the world gets. The researchers used several scenarios based on how much extra warmth Earth will hang onto with different concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The least dire is an extra 2.6 Watts per square meter by 2100, while the worst scenario is an extra 8.5 Watts per square meter by that time. The researchers estimate that in a 2.6 Watts/square meter scenario, Antarctic ice will cause the equivalent of 0.26 feet (0.08 meters) in sea-level rise thanks to extra snowfall. In the worst-case scenario, the sea-level rise jumps to 1.8 feet (0.56 m).

Those numbers are between 100 percent and 200 percent of the ice loss caused by surface and ocean warmth combined, Winkelmann said. By 2500, ice loss caused by snowfall in the warmest scenario could hit 4 feet (1.45 m).

Despite the fact that these findings hold along the entire Antarctic coast, there is still lots of uncertainty about Antarctica's future, Winkelmann said.

'We need to make further steps towards a full assessment of sea-level rise - globally and locally,' she said.

Follow Stephanie Pappas on Twitter @sipappas or LiveScience @livescience. We're also on Facebook & Google+.

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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Fish sold in New York is routinely mislabeled: study

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly three in five New York City grocery stores and restaurants that sell seafood have mislabeled part of their stock, substituting varieties that could cause health problems, according to a new study.

Some 39 percent of the fish obtained for the study by the ocean conservation group Oceana was inaccurately identified, Oceana said. Sometimes cheap fish is substituted for more expensive varieties or plentiful species for scarce ones.

Forensic DNA analysis revealed 58 percent of 81 New York retailers and eateries sampled incorrectly labeled the seafood they sold, according to the study released Tuesday.

'It's unacceptable that New York seafood lovers are being duped more than one-third of the time when purchasing certain types of fish,' Kimberly Warner, a senior scientist at Oceana and an author of the study, said in a news release.

In some instances, consumers unknowingly purchased fish that could pose health risks.

Blueline tilefish masqueraded as halibut and red snapper. The FDA urges pregnant women, nursing mothers and small children to avoid tilefish given its high mercury content.

All but one of the 17 white tuna samples obtained from sushi restaurants turned out to be escolar, a fish whose diarrhea-inducing properties earned it the nickname the 'ex-lax fish.'

Mislabeled seafood can present a public health concern because many hazards are species specific, a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) spokeswoman said in an email. Allergic reactions and food-borne illnesses are some of the possible health hazards, the spokeswoman said.

New York's rate of seafood mislabeling was higher than Miami's (31 percent) but lower than that of Boston (48 percent) and Los Angeles (55 percent), according to recent Oceana investigations.

What distinguishes New York's seafood marketplace from those of the other American cities Oceana tested is the presence of smaller, independent food stores, 40 percent of which sold mislabeled fish, Warner said in an interview. In contrast, only 12 percent of seafood bought at national chain grocery stores in New York were labeled incorrectly.

The problem is not new. A study appearing in a 1992 issue of Consumer Reports found about a third of the seafood sampled in New York, Chicago, and San Jose was incorrectly labeled.

Nor is seafood mislabeling an issue that has gone unreported. The discovery in August 2011 that Zabar's, a gourmet food store on Manhattan, had been passing off crawfish as lobster in its lobster salad for at least 15 years was the subject of multiple, high-profile media stories.

(Additional reporting by Sharon Begley; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)



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Monday, December 10, 2012

Global Climate Talks Spark Frustration

Even as warnings of the potentially catastrophic effects of global warming mounted, negotiators at global climate talks in Qatar made only modest steps toward halting warming as they came to an end over the weekend.

Perhaps most significant among them, was the extension of the Kyoto Protocol a greenhouse-gas emissions reduction treaty, until 2020 when a new global climate treaty - which has yet to be drafted - is set to take effect.

To the frustration of some observers, none of these new developments, including the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, significantly curbs the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions across the globe, which has been steadily growing.

The United Nations talks' modest progress contrasted with the simultaneous alarms related to global warming, ranging from extreme events - most recently, the Bopha typhoon in the Philippines and Hurricane Sandy along the U.S. East Coast - to reports, such as one from the World Bank, which outlined the havoc a 5.2-degree Fahrenheit (4-degree Celsius) increase in global temperatures would wreak. (The report and scientists have warned that without significant action, the planet could face this amount of average warming.) [8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World]

There are reasons for optimism 'on the margins of the negotiations,' such as a handful of new emissions reduction pledges (although none by major emitters like the United States), as well as initiatives and national policies occurring outside the U.N. process, according to an assessment by the nonprofit Climate Analytics.

However, the assessment concluded that, given the current state of affairs, 'the world is still set to warm well above 3 degrees C (5.2 degrees F).'

Doha gains

The extension of the Kyoto Protocol, a greenhouse gas emissions reduction treaty, that would otherwise have ended this year, was among the small-scale accomplishments achieved at negotiations in Qatar, said Nathan Hultman, an associate professor at the University of Maryland.

A handful of developed nations, including the European Union and Australia, agreed to take on new emissions reductions' commitments as part of a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol.

While this agreement carries some symbolic and practical importance, 'it is not really a global agreement,' said Hultman, who attended part of the conference.

China and the United States, the two biggest emitters, as well as other major players, did not enter the agreement, he said.

A long-term agreement is on the horizon, based on a decision made last year at talks in Durban. Under the timeline, the agreement must be drawn up by 2015 and implemented by 2020. However, no significant progress was made on it this year, Hultman said.

Negotiators did manage to close out some long-standing discussions and continued attempts to raise funds from developed countries to assist developing nations.

A suite of emission reductions' pledges put in place after talks in 2009 remained largely unchanged with no major emitter offering further cuts. [The 10 Craziest Environmental Ideas]

The lack of significant progress on changing the planet's emission trajectory has prompted 'a real lack of faith in the ability of nations to come together on a global deal,' said Ellie Johnston, Lead Now fellowship director for the youth organization SustainUs. 'There is a question whether or not the UNFCCC [United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention] can produce the agreement we need to address climate change.'

But, she added, the U.N. process should continue, because 'we need some sort of mechanism to pull all of the nations together to help encourage each other along.'

A quiet year

The talks at Doha started to relatively low expectations, said Travis Franck, senior scientist and policy analyst for the nongovernmental group Climate Interactive, who attended part of the conference.

Other recent climate meetings have not brought much progress either, and the geopolitical landscape has changed little recently, Franck said, adding that major players, such as China and the United States, haven't significantly altered their positions, and the European Union's debt crisis has prevented it from playing a leading role.

Timing was also important.

'The next big conversation is the big Durban Platform,' he said, referring to the treaty on the horizon for 2015. 'That isn't coming to a head for a couple of years, so the pressure isn't there.'

Accumulating evidence

Meanwhile, however, a sense of urgency has been building.

Natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy, and most recently, Typhoon Bopha, which has taken hundreds of lives in the Philippines, have called attention to the connection between climate change and extreme weather events.

On Thursday (Dec. 6), a Philippine delegate called attention to the disaster in his country, saying, 'let this be the year we found the courage to take responsibility for the future we want. . If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?' the Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported. [Extreme Weather Facts: Quiz Yourself]

The talks also coincided with the release of U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration reports examining unprecedented change in the Arctic, including retreating sea ice, and declaring that 2012 would almost certainly be the warmest year on record for the lower 48 U.S. states.

Negotiators have the goal of reducing emissions in order to cap warming at 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C). However, carbon dioxide emissions have continued to climb. In 2011, China and India were the largest contributors to the growth in emissions, offsetting declines in emissions from the United States and the European Union, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project. (The United States remains the second largest emitter even though its emissions are declining.)

Beyond the negotiations

The U.N. negotiations may be proceeding slowly, but Niklas Höhne, director of energy and climate policy at the independent research and consulting company Ecofys and an author of the Climate Analytics assessment, sees encouraging things happening on the sidelines.

A handful of countries (none major emitters) are offering new pledges to reduce emissions; countries such as Korea, Brazil and Mexico are implementing policies at home to meet their pledges; and plenty of policies are being made at the national, subnational and city level to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, Höhne said.

The international process plays an important role in spurring nations to implement policies at home, he said.

'It may not be sufficient to reach the common goal of limiting climate change to 2 degrees C [3.6 degrees F] but it is certainly one very important factor to make it happen,' he said. In past work, Höhne and colleagues highlighted 21 promising initiatives for emissions reductions occurring outside the U.N. process.

Hultman agreed that the U.N. process was not the only venue for addressing climate change.

'International discussions are one element, and we have all these other dimensions of action,' he said. 'It is important not to lose sight of those other actions as well.'

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