Friday, November 30, 2012

Chinese bid for A123 may raise security risks: Senators

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Chinese company's attempt to take over government-backed battery maker A123 raises serious national security concerns, a bipartisan group of lawmakers said this week, adding to growing congressional opposition to the deal.

China's Wanxiang Group Corp is currently competing with U.S.-based Johnson Controls Inc to buy bankrupt A123, which makes lithium ion batteries for electric cars.

The government must ensure that any sale of A123's technology, which has also been used by the military and to support the U.S. electrical grid, does not threaten domestic security, the senators said in letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Energy Secretary Steven Chu and other top cabinet officials.

Among the eight senators and one senator-elect signing the letter were influential Republican Rob Portman of Ohio and Democrat Dick Durbin of Illinois.

They called on the powerful Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to consider any 'potentially harmful consequences that could occur as a result' of a sale to Wanxiang.

To acquire A123, Wanxiang needs approval from CFIUS, a U.S. inter-agency panel that vets foreign deals for security concerns.

Wanxiang's law firm Sidley Austin has said that it would submit its bid to CFIUS.

The lawmakers also raised concerns that Wanxiang could receive taxpayer funded assets from A123, which was awarded a $249 million grant by the Obama administration.

'The transfer of assets, technology and intellectual property, developed with American tax dollars, to a foreign company would be irresponsible,' the letter said.

The U.S. government has argued in court that A123 cannot be sold without its consent since it received a grant from the Energy Department.

The government did not identify a preferred buyer in its court filing, but the administration has stressed that none of the government's grant would be allowed to fund facilities abroad.

Prior to filing for bankruptcy in October, A123 had received about half of its grant.

When the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in October its plan was to sell its battery business to Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls for $125 million.

This planned sale is subject to better bids at an auction in December. Wanxiang, an auto parts supplier, has said it intends to make an offer for the company.

Wanxiang's pursuit of A123 has been met with uneasiness from Congress. Other lawmakers such as Republican Senators John Thune and Charles Grassley and Democratic Senators Debbie Stabenow and Carl Levin have already voiced misgivings.

(Additional reporting by Ben Klayman; Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)



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UN climate boss: No support for tough climate deal

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - The United Nations climate chief is urging people not to look solely to their governments to make tough decisions to slow global warming, and instead to consider their own role in solving the problem.

Approaching the half-way point of two-week climate talks in Doha, Christiana Figueres, the head of the U.N.'s climate change secretariat, said Friday she didn't see 'much public interest, support, for governments to take on more ambitious and more courageous decisions.'

Figueres said 'each one of us needs to assume responsibility. It's not just about domestic governments.'

Her comments came as negotiators from nearly 200 countries were struggling to prepare draft agreements on how to move forward on greenhouse emissions cuts and climate aid for poor countries.



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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Ice sheets melting at poles faster than before

WASHINGTON (AP) - Fueled by global warming, polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are now melting three times faster than they did in the 1990s, a new scientific study says.

So far, that's only added about half an inch to rising sea levels, not as bad as some earlier worst case scenarios. But the melting's quicker pace, especially in Greenland, has ice scientists worried.

One of the biggest wild cards in climate change has been figuring out how much the melting of the massive sheets of ice at the two poles would add to the seas. Until now, researchers haven't agreed on how fast the mile-thick sheets are thawing - and if Antarctica was even losing ice.

The new research concludes that Antarctica is melting, but points to the smaller ice sheet in Greenland, which covers most of the island, as the bigger and more pressing issue. Its melt rate has grown from about 55 billion tons a year in the 1990s to almost 290 billion tons a year recently, according to the study.

'Greenland is really taking off,' said National Snow and Ice Data Center scientist Ted Scambos, a co-author of the paper released Thursday by the journal Science.

Study lead author Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds in England, said their results provide a message for negotiators in Doha, Qatar, who are working on an international agreement to fight global warming: 'It's very clear now that Greenland is a problem.'

Scientists blame man-made global warming for the melting. Burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, emits carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that trap heat, warming the atmosphere and oceans. Bit-by-bit, that erodes the ice sheets from above and below. Snowfall replenishes the ice sheets, but hasn't kept pace with the rate of melting.

Because the world's oceans are so big, it takes a lot of ice melting - about 10 trillion tons - to raise sea levels 1 inch. Since 1992, ice sheets at the poles have lost nearly 5 trillion tons of ice, the study says, raising sea levels by about a half inch.

That seemingly tiny extra bit probably worsened the flooding from an already devastating Superstorm Sandy last month, said NASA ice scientist Erik Ivins, another co-author of the study. He said the extra weight gives each wave a little more energy.

'The more energy there is in a wave, the further the water can get inland,' Ivins said.

Globally, the world's oceans rose about half a foot on average in the 20th Century. Melting ice sheets accounts for about one-fifth of sea level rise. Warmer water expands, contributing to the rise along with water from melting glaciers outside the polar regions.

Just how much ice is melting at the two poles has been difficult for scientists to answer. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not include ice sheet melt in its calculations of future sea level rise because numbers were so uncertain.

It's an important factor because if all the polar ice sheets somehow melted - something that would take centuries - global sea levels would jump by more than 200 feet, said Pennsylvania State University ice scientist Richard Alley, who wasn't part of the research.

Some past studies showed melting on the polar ice sheets, while others said that the Antarctic ice sheet was growing and offsetting melting in Greenland. The new work by 47 scientists around the world combines three methods and measurements from 10 satellites to come to a scientific consensus on what's happening to the polar ice sheets.

In the 1990s, the two ice sheets combined on average lost 110 billion tons of ice each year to melting, the researchers reported. That increased and by 2005 to 2010, they were losing three times as much - 379 billion tons yearly. The numbers don't include the summer of 2012 when Greenland experienced a melt that hadn't been seen in more than a century, researchers said.

The consensus says that as a whole the Antarctic ice sheet is melting. Part of the issue is that the southern continent is not reacting to climate change uniformly, with some areas growing and others shrinking. The entire Antarctic ice sheet is about the size of the U.S. and Mexico combined.

NASA chief scientist Waleed Abdalati, one of the few top ice researchers who wasn't part of the study, praised the work.

'Understanding how and why the ice sheets are changing today better equips us for understanding and predicting how much and in what ways they will change in the future,' he said.

___

Online:

Science: http://www.sciencemag.org

Ice sheets: http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

___

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears



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Would You Postpone Santa's Visit to Save Money?

Do the high costs of the holiday season make you feel like Scrooge? If so, you might want to think about holding off on your shopping or celebration by a few days or even a week. Many consumers think that may help them save big-time green, a new survey shows.

More than one-quarter (29 percent) of consumers who celebrate Christmas are at least somewhat likely to consider postponing Kris Kringle's visit to a later date so they can save money, according to a survey of more than 2,300 U.S. adults 18 and older sponsored by CouponCabin.com, an online source for coupons, free samples and local deals.

And more than a quarter of them (34 percent) would consider waiting until January to do most of their holiday shopping to save money.

Money anxiety is as much a part of the holiday season as piles of presents, over-the-top decorations and massive meals, the survey found. Here a quarter of consumers are at least somewhat concerned with holiday expenses and 19 percent are very concerned.

More than 4 in 10 are worried that they won't be able to make ends meet this season due to holiday expenses, and nearly as many (37 percent) are worried that they will have a lot of debt after the holidays.

Budget-conscious consumers are also open to changes in their holiday get-togethers, the survey found. Nearly a third (32 percent) said it doesn't matter what day their family and friends celebrate or exchange gifts.

'Financial worries are common for many people year-round, and the holiday season can compound that anxiety,' said Jackie Warrick, president and chief savings officer at CouponCabin.com. 'Sometimes, switching things up, like when holiday celebrations are held, can mean a smaller financial burden. To some people, it might be unusual to change their celebrations, but for others, it can make sense to shift their plans if it means saving big bucks.'

This story was provided by BusinessNewsDaily, a sister site to LiveScience. Reach BusinessNewsDaily senior writer Ned Smith at nsmith@techmedianetwork.com. Follow him on Twitter @nedbsmith.We're also on Facebook & Google+.

Copyright 2012 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Arctic sea ice larger than US melted this year

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - An area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the United States melted this year, according the U.N. weather agency, which said the dramatic decline illustrates that climate change is happening 'before our eyes.'

In a report released at U.N. climate talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, the World Meteorological Organization said the Arctic ice melt was one of a myriad of extreme and record-breaking weather events to hit the planet in 2012. Droughts devastated nearly two-thirds of the United States as well western Russia and southern Europe. Floods swamped west Africa and heat waves left much of the Northern Hemisphere sweltering.

But it was the ice melt that seemed to dominate the annual climate report, with the U.N. concluding ice cover had reached 'a new record low' in the area around the North Pole and that the loss from March to September was a staggering 11.83 million square kilometers (4.57 million square miles) - an area bigger than the United States.

'The alarming rate of its melt this year highlighted the far-reaching changes taking place on Earth's oceans and biosphere,' WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said. 'Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records.'

The dire climate news - following on the heels of a report Tuesday that found melting permafrost could significantly amplify global warming - comes as delegates from nearly 200 countries struggled for a third day to lay the groundwork for a deal that would cut emissions in an attempt to ensure that temperatures don't rise more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) over what they were in preindustrial times. Temperatures have already risen about 0.8 degrees C (1.4 degrees F), according to the latest report by the IPCC.

Discord between rich and poor countries on who should do what has kept the two-decade-old U.N. talks from delivering on that goal, and global emissions are still going up.

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, urged delegates to heed the science and quickly take action.

'When I had the privilege in 2007 of accepting the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC, in my speech I asked the rhetorical question, 'Will those responsible for decisions in the field of climate change at the global level listen to the voice of science and knowledge, which is now loud and clear,' ' he said. 'I am not sure our voice is louder today but it is certainly clearer on the basis of the new knowledge.'

Delegates in Doha are bickering over money from rich countries to help poorer ones adapt to and combat the impacts of climate change, and whether developed countries will sign onto an extension of a legally binding emissions pact, the Kyoto Protocol, that would run until 2020.

A pact that once incorporated all industrialized countries except the United States would now include only the European Union, Australia and several smaller countries which together account for less than 15 percent of global emissions. And the United States is refusing to offer any bolder commitments to cut its emissions beyond a non-binding pledge to reduce emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

'For developed country parties like the United States and the European Union, the pledges and commitments ... put forward on the table are far below what is required by the science,' Su Wei, a member of the Chinese delegation, told reporters. 'And far below what is required by their historical responsibility.'

Developing countries have said they are willing to take steps to control emissions, but that they must be given space to build their economies. Although China is the largest carbon polluter and India is rapidly catching up, both countries lag far behind the industrial countries in emissions per person and still have huge populations mired in poverty. They don't see emissions peaking anytime soon.

'We are still in the process of industrialization. We are also confronted with the enormous task of poverty eradication,' said Wei, acknowledging that the country's emissions won't peak by 2020.

'In order to eradicate poverty, to try to improve the living standards, certainly we need to develop our economy,' he said. 'So the emissions will need to grow for a period of time.'

___

Karl Ritter contributed to this report.

___

Follow Michael Casey on www.twitter.com/mcasey1 or Karl Ritter on www.twitter.com/karl_ritter



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AMSC slashes workforce, cuts outlook on weak wind energy market

(Reuters) - AMSC said it laid off about a quarter of its workforce and forecast a larger-than-expected loss for the current quarter as the power technology company struggles to stem losses caused by overcapacity and weak demand in the wind power market.

The company, which has cut more than half its workforce since August 2011, now has only about 340 employees.

The maker of electrical components for wind turbines expects a loss of 'less than 31 cents per share', excluding items, for the third quarter ending December. It earlier forecast a loss of less than 26 cents.

AMSC is trying to recover from losing its biggest customer, China's Sinovel Wind Group <601558.SS>, in 2011, but a weak global economy and piled up inventory have kept progress at bay.

The Devens, Massachusetts-based company's shares, which fell as much as 11 percent, recovered to be down 7 percent at $2.58 in early afternoon trading on the Nasdaq on Wednesday.

The stock has lost more than 80 percent of its value since April 2011, when Sinovel refused to accept shipments.

Chinese wind turbine makers, among the world's largest, are also under pressure from an expiring U.S. tax credit for wind power production.

AMSC may run out of cash and not be able to sustain operations beyond next year, said Ardour Capital Investments analyst Jinming Liu.

'If they can't solve the lawsuit with Sinovel in the near term, they may have to look to divest some of their subsidiaries to raise to more cash,' Liu told Reuters.

AMSC sued Sinovel last November alleging it had violated their sales contract and stolen intellectual property. It has sought to recover more than $1.2 billion through civil cases filed in various Chinese courts.

AMSC, which has reported losses for eight straight quarters, said it expects to have more than $48 million in cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash on December 31.

The company expects the restructuring, which includes consolidation of some offices, to lower annual operating expenses by about $10 million to less that $58 million.

AMSC said it expects to incur restructuring charges of between $3 million and $4 million over the next two quarters, $2 million of which will be taken in the current quarter.

Analyst Liu said he believes AMSC could return to profitability if it divests its grid business, which makes superconductor products such as power cables and motors. The business accounts for about 40 percent of total revenue.

'The key is their superconductor business. It burns a lot of money ... and is not profitable.'

(Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel, Sriraj Kalluvila)



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AMSC slashes 25 percent of workforce, cuts third-quarter outlook

(Reuters) - Power technology company AMSC said it laid off about a quarter of its workforce due to 'challenging conditions' in the wind power market.

The company also cut its loss outlook for the current quarter ending December to less than 31 cents per share, excluding items. It had earlier forecast a loss of less than 26 cents.

The maker of electrical components for wind turbines said it has about 340 employees after the workforce reduction.

AMSC has been struggling to return to a profit after losing major customer Sinovel Wind Group in 2011, but a weak global economy and industry overcapacity have kept progress at bay.

Devens, Massachusetts-based AMSC's shares fell 11 percent to $2.47 in early trading on the Nasdaq. They have lost more than 80 percent of their value since Chinese wind turbine maker Sinovel refused to accept shipments in April 2011.

AMSC's revenue from the wind turbine business fell more than 10 percent in the quarter ended September.

'Financing and cash flow among wind farm developers and wind turbine manufacturers have been constrained, which has impacted growth plans for some of our partners,' Chief Executive Daniel McGahn said in a statement.

AMSC said it expects to incur restructuring charges of between $3 million and $4 million related to the job cuts over the next two quarters, $2 million of which will be taken in the current quarter.

The company also expects savings of about $10 million from the restructuring, fully realized in the quarter ending June 2013.

(Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel)



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Chinese solar companies look homeward to boost shipments

(Reuters) - Chinese solar panel makers Yingli Green Energy Holding Co and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd joined rivals in saying that they would turn to their domestic market to drive shipment growth in the face of steep U.S. import duties and a slump in panel prices.

Yingli expects shipments to grow rapidly in markets like China in the fourth quarter, while JA Solar said it was making inroads into Australia, Southeast Asia and South America.

JA Solar's third-quarter shipments to China doubled from the preceding quarter. China contributed 28 percent to Yingli's quarterly revenue, compared to 14 percent in the second quarter.

Rival JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd earlier this month said half of its 2013 revenue would come from China.

China has launched a number of incentive programs to prop its flailing solar industry and in August hiked its 2015 target for solar power capacity by 40 percent to about 21 gigawatts (GW), the third increase in just over a year.

The United States earlier this month approved tariffs on imports from most top Chinese solar equipment manufacturers, including Yingli and JA Solar.

The European Union is looking at imposing similar duties and has launched an investigation into alleged state subsidies for Chinese solar panel manufacturers.

These developments in top market Europe and the United States come at an unfortunate time for Chinese solar companies, whose margins have nearly disappeared due to a sharp fall in prices.

Prices have plunged 75 percent in the last four years on weak demand from Europe and rapid capacity expansion.

BETTING ON POWER PLANTS

Yingli also said it would ship 200 megawatt (MW) of modules to a utility scale project in Imperial County, California, being developed by Centinela Solar Energy LLC.

Solar companies are turning to the more lucrative business of developing large solar power plants that will be powered by their panels, as pure panel manufacturing remains highly unprofitable.

Rivals Trina Solar Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc have also said they are turning their focus to utility-type solar projects.

JA Solar, which consolidated its American Depositary Shares (ADS) last week to avoid delisting from the Nasdaq, said it expects total cell and module shipments to be between 380 megawatt (MW) and 420 MW in the fourth quarter, compared with 418 MW in the third.

The company narrowed its full-year shipment outlook to between 1.55 GW and 1.65 GW, from 1.5 GW to 1.8 GW.

The bleak shipment forecast comes days after rivals Trina Solar and Canadian Solar cut their full-year forecast for solar panel shipments.

Shares of Yingli, valued at about $218 million, closed at $1.43 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of JA Solar, valued at about $132 million, closed at 65 cents.

Yingli shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value this year, while those of JA Solar have more than halved.

(Reporting by Swetha Gopinath and Vishal Krishnan Menon in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel)



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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Microsoft sold 40 million Windows 8 licenses in month: executive

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp has sold 40 million Windows 8 licenses in the month since the launch, according to one of the new co-heads of the Windows unit.

The new operating system is outpacing sales of Windows 7 at the same stage, Tami Reller, finance and marketing head of the Windows business, said at an investor conference held by Credit Suisse.

Reller was named as one of two executives to run the Windows unit after president Steven Sinofsky unexpectedly left two weeks ago. Julie Larson-Green heads the engineering side of Windows.

Windows 8 and the Surface tablet were both launched on October 26. Microsoft has not released sales numbers for the Surface.

The sales of 40 million Windows 8 licenses does not mean that 40 million users have adopted Windows 8. The bulk of those sales are to PC manufacturers, who in turn sell many machines to companies, very few of which are using Windows 8 yet.

According to tech research firm StatCounter, about 1 percent of the world's 1.5 billion or so personal computers - making a total of around 15 million - are actually running Windows 8.

The touch-friendly Windows 8 system and the Surface tablet are Microsoft's answer to Apple Inc's and Google Inc's domination of mobile computing, which has shunted aside PCs in favor of iPads and smartphones.

The first Surface, designed to challenge the iPad head on, is based on a chip designed by ARM Holdings Plc and does not run old versions of Microsoft programs. A slightly bigger version based on an Intel Corp chip that will run the full Windows 8 Pro operating system and be fully compatible with the Office suite of applications will be available in January, Reller said.

(Reporting by Bill Rigby; Editing by Gary Hill and Andre Grenon)



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Brazil deforestation hits record low

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) - Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest has dropped to its lowest level in 24 years, the government said Tuesday.

Satellite imagery showed that 1,798 square miles (4,656 square kilometers) of the Amazon were deforested between August 2011 and July 2012, Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said a news conference. That's 27 percent less than the 2,478 square miles (6,418 square kilometers) deforested a year earlier. The margin of error is 10 percentage points.

Brazil's National Institute for Space Research said the deforestation level is the lowest since it started measuring the destruction of the rainforest in 1988.

Sixty-three percent of the rainforest's 2.4 million square miles (6.1 million square kilometers) are in Brazil.

The space institute said that the latest figures show that Brazil is close to its 2020 target of reducing deforestation by 80 percent from 1990 levels. Through July 2012 deforestation dropped by 76.26 percent.

George Pinto a director of Ibama, Brazil's environmental protection agency, told reporters that better enforcement of environmental laws and improved surveillance technology are behind the drop in deforestation levels.

Pinto said that in the 12-month period a total of 2,000 square meters of illegally felled timber were seized by government agents. The impounded lumber is sold in auctions and the money obtained is invested in environmental preservation programs.

Environment Minister Teixeira said that starting next year Brazil will start using satellite monitoring technology to detect illegal logging and slash-and-burn activity and issue fines.

'Over the past several years Brazil has made a huge effort to contain deforestation and the latest figures testify to its success,' said Adalberto Verissimo, a senior researcher at Imazon, an environmental watchdog agency. 'The deforestation figures are extremely positive, for they point to a consistent downward trend.'

'The numbers disprove the argument that deforestation is necessary for the country's economy to grow, he said by telephone from his office in the Amazon city of Belem. 'Deforestation has been dropping steadily for the past four years while the economy has grown,' he said

'But the war is far from over. We still have a lot of battles to fight and win.'

For Marcio Astrini, Greenpeace coordinator in the Amazon region, 'the lower figures ... make it perfectly clear that deforestation is not only necessary but perfectly possible.'

'But the numbers are still too high for a country that does not have to destroy one single hectare in order to develop,' he added.



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Rich, poor spar at climate talks

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - The first signs of tensions emerged at the U.N. climate talks on Tuesday as delegates from island and African nations chided rich countries for refusing to offer up new emissions cuts over the next eight years which could help stem global warming

The debate mostly swirled around the Kyoto Protocol - a legally-binding emissions cap that expires this year and remains the most significant international achievement in the fight against global warming. Countries are hoping to negotiate an extension to the pact that runs until at least 2020 but several nations like Japan and Canada have said they won't be party to a new one.

Marlene Moses, chairwoman of a coalition of island countries, said she was 'gravely disappointed' with rich nations, saying they have failed to act or offer up any new emissions cuts for the near term. The United States, for example, which is not a signatory of Kyoto, has said it would not increase earlier commitments to cut emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

'In our view, these actions are an abdication of responsibility to the most vulnerable among us,' Moses said.

In its current form, a pact that once incorporated all industrialized countries except the United States would now only include the European Union, Australia and several smaller countries which together account for less than 15 percent of global emissions he Japanese delegation defended its decision not to sign onto a Kyoto extension, insisting it would be better to focus on coming to an agreement by 2015 that would require all countries to do their part to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), compared to preindustrial times.

'As we have been explaining, only developed countries are legally bound by the Kyoto Protocol and their emissions are only 26 percent,' said Masahiko Horie, speaking for the Japanese delegation.

'If we continue the same, only one quarter of the world is legally bound and three quarters of countries are not bound at all,' he said. 'Japan will not be participating in a second commitment period because, what is important, is for the world is to formulate a new framework which is fair and effective and which all parties will join.'

The position of Japan and other developed countries has the potential to reignite the battles between rich and poor nations that have doomed past efforts to reach a deal. So far that hasn't happened, but countries like Brazil are warning that it will be difficult for poor nations to do their part if they continue watching industrialized nations shy away from legally-binding pacts like Kyoto.

'This is a very serious thing,' said Andre Correa do Lago, who heads the Brazil delegation and is the director general for Environment and Special Affairs in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

'If rich countries which have the financial means, have technology, have a stable population, already have a large middle class, if these countries think they cannot reduce and work to fight climate change, how can they ever think that developing countries can do it,' do Lago said. 'That is why the Kyoto Protocol has to be kept alive. It's the bar. If we take it out, we have what people call the Wild West. Everybody will do what they want to do. With everyone doing what they want to do, you are not going get the reductions necessary.'

Many scientists say extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy's onslaught on the U.S. east coast, will become more frequent as the Earth warms, although it is impossible to attribute any individual event to climate change. The rash of violent weather in the U.S., including widespread droughts and a record number of wildfires last summer, has again put climate change on the radar.

'It's probably not a coincidence,' Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice chairman of the U.N. climate panel, told The Associated Press. 'Climate is defined by trends and not by single events so it's never possible to attribute a single event to a changing climate. But what is clear over time is that the climate context is evolving and in that climate context many extreme events become either more intense or more frequent. And the kind of things that we have seen in the U.S. are likely to happen more in the future, together with heat waves and that kind of thing.'

Meanwhile, a United Nations report warned that thawing permafrost covering almost a quarter of the northern hemisphere could 'significantly amplify global warming' at a time when the world is already struggling to reign in rising greenhouse gases, a U.N. report said on Tuesday.

The U.N. said the potential hazards of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from warming permafrost has until now not been factored into climate models. It is calling for a special U.N. climate panel to assess the warming and for the creation of 'national monitoring networks and adaptation plans' to help better understand the threat.

In the past, land with permafrost experienced thawing on the surface during summertime, but now scientists are witnessing thaws that reach up to 10 feet deep due to warmer temperatures. The softened earth releases gases from decaying plants that have been stuck below frozen ground for millennia.

'Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world,' said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner in a statement.

Kevin Schaefer, of the University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center, said 1,700 gigatons of permafrost exist. The lead author on the U.N. report, he warns that that melting could permanently amplify what is already a worrisome threat.

'The release of carbon dioxide and methane from warming permafrost is irreversible: once the organic matter thaws and decays away, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost,' Schaefer said.

___

Associated Press writer Karl Ritter contributed to this report.



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UN says thawing permafrost to boost global warming

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - Thawing permafrost covering almost a quarter of the northern hemisphere could 'significantly amplify global warming' at a time when the world is already struggling to reign in rising greenhouse gases, a U.N. report said on Tuesday.

The warning comes as United Nations climate negotiations enter a second day, with the focus on the Kyoto Protocol - a legally-binding emissions cap that expires this year and remains the most significant international achievement in the fight against global warming. Countries are hoping to negotiate an extension to the pact that runs until at least 2020.

The U.N. said the potential hazards of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from warming permafrost has until now not been factored into climate models. It is calling for a special U.N. climate panel to assess the warming and for the creation of 'national monitoring networks and adaptation plans' to help better understand the threat.

In the past, land with permafrost experienced thawing on the surface during summertime, but now scientists are witnessing thaws that reach up to 10 feet deep due to warmer temperatures. The softened earth releases gases from decaying plants that have been stuck below frozen ground for millennia.

'Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world,' said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner in a statement.

At the climate talks in Doha, Qatar, negotiations over Kyoto started on Tuesday. Many rich countries such as Japan, Russia and Canada have refused to endorse the extension, and talks are expected to be heated. The United States was the lone industrialized country not to join the original pact because it did not include other big greenhouse gas emitters like China.

In its current form, a pact that once incorporated all industrialized countries except the United States would now only include the European Union, Australia and several smaller countries which together account for less than 15 percent of global emissions.

'We want to send a very clear message. We will not accept a second commitment period that is not worth the paper that it's written on,' Asad Rehman of the Climate Justice Now! network told delegates. 'We will not collude in a lie if that locks us into eight years of inaction and that condemns people and planet to a climate catastrophe.'

The Japanese delegation defended its decision not to sign onto a Kyoto extension, insisting it would be better to focus on coming to an agreement by 2015 that would require all countries to do their part to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), compared to preindustrial times.

'As we have been explaining, only developed countries are legally bound by the Kyoto Protocol and their emissions are only 26 percent,' said Masahiko Horie, speaking for the Japanese delegation.

'If we continue the same, only one quarter of the world is legally bound and three quarters of countries are not bound at all,' he said. 'Japan will not be participating in a second commitment period because, what is important, is for the world is to formulate a new framework which is fair and effective and which all parties will join.'

The position of Japan and other developed countries has the potential to reignite the battles between rich and poor nations that have doomed past efforts to reach a deal. So far that hasn't happened, but countries like Brazil are warning that it will be difficult for poor nations to do their part if they continue watching industrialized nations shy away from legally-binding pacts like Kyoto.

'This is a very serious thing,' said Andre Correa do Lago, who heads the Brazil delegation and is the director general for Environment and Special Affairs in the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

'If rich countries which have the financial means, have technology, have a stable population, already have a large middle class, if these countries think they cannot reduce and work to fight climate change, how can they ever think that developing countries can do it,' do Lago said. 'That is why the Kyoto Protocol has to be kept alive. It's the bar. If we take it out, we have what people call the Wild West. Everybody will do what they want to do. With everyone doing what they want to do, you are not going get the reductions necessary.



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New land, but also costs, as Nordic nations rise from sea

LULEA, Sweden (Reuters) - A Stone Age camp that used to be by the shore is now 200 km (125 miles) from the Baltic Sea. Sheep graze on what was the seabed in the 15th century. And Sweden's port of Lulea risks getting too shallow for ships.

In contrast to worries from the Maldives to Manhattan of storm surges and higher ocean levels caused by climate change, the entire northern part of the Nordic region is rising and, as a result, the Baltic Sea is receding.

'In a way we're lucky,' said Lena Bengten, environmental strategist at the Lulea Municipality in Sweden, pointing to damage from Superstorm Sandy that killed more than 200 people from Haiti to the United States.

The uplift of almost a centimeter (0.4 inch) a year, one of the highest rates in the world, is part of a continuing geological rebound since the end of the Ice Age removed a vast ice sheet from regions around the Arctic Circle.

'It's a bit like a foam rubber mattress. It takes a while to return to normal after you get up,' said Martin Vermeer, a professor of geodesy at Aalto University in Finland. Finland gains 7 sq km (2.7 sq miles) a year as the land rises.

In the Lulea region just south of the Arctic Circle, mostly flat with pine forests and where the sea freezes in winter, tracts of land have emerged, leaving some Stone Age, Viking and Medieval sites inland.

That puts human settlements gradually out of harm's way from sea flooding, unlike low-lying islands from Tuvalu to Kiribati or cities from New York to Shanghai. Facebook is investing in a new data center in Lulea on land that was once on the seabed.

But rising land also means costs. Lulea is planning to deepen its port by 2020 to let in bigger ships and offset land rise at a cost of 1.6 billion Swedish crowns ($237.86 million).

'Even if we didn't have the ambition to have larger ships we would still have to do it on a smaller scale just to compensate for the land rise,' said Roger Danell, head of the port.

SHALLOWER PORT

Dredging just for existing ships would cost 400 million crowns as the water gets shallower at the port that was last deepened in the 1970s, construction manager Jeanette Lestander said. Main exports are iron ore and the main import is coal.

But a projected rise in sea levels due to global warming means dredging to offset land rise for the next 40 years will be slightly less than in the 1970s.

'The rate of sea level fall will be slowing,' Lestander said during a visit to the port. The future sea fall is estimated at 0.7 cm a year from 0.9 cm.

In the north of Sweden, 200 km inland and 170 meters above current sea level, archaeologists recently found a 10,700 year-old Stone Age hunters' camp near Pajala that was originally by the Ancylus Lake, the forerunner of the Baltic Sea.

'We carbon-dated burnt bones from a fireplace,' archaeologist Olof Ostlund at the Norrbottens museum said. The hunters would have been near the retreating ice sheet that was once 3 km (1.9 miles) thick.

Experts examined sediments that showed the camp was on the shore of the former giant lake, briefly isolated from the North Sea by land uplift in the south before breaking through again.

Lulea's old town, with a 15th century church and bright red-painted wooden houses, was originally built on an island for safety when it was as an outpost of the then Swedish-Finnish Kingdom to counter Russian influence near the Arctic Circle.

Now the village is high and dry, out of sight of the sea. Sheep graze on a field in what used to be the port. In one spot, Sweden's coastline has risen about 300 meters since the Ice Age ended about 10,000 years ago.

BIBLICAL FLOOD

The falling water level puzzled people for generations. Some Christians believed it was caused by still-receding waters after the Biblical story of Noah who built an Ark to rescue the world's animals from a God-sent flood.

Elsewhere in the world, many nations are worried by potential costs if sea levels rise in line with scenarios by the U.N. panel of climate scientists for a gain of 18 to 59 cm (7-24 inches) this century after 17 cm in the last century.

The panel says that rising temperatures, caused by emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, are the cause.

The U.N. projection excludes the possibility of an acceleration of the melt of Greenland and Antarctica, because that is uncertain.

Even so, many experts expect a quickening thaw and say that sea levels could rise in total by a meter this century.

Almost 200 governments are meeting in Doha, Qatar, this week to try to revive a U.N.-led effort to slow climate change that is also projected to cause more floods, droughts, heatwaves and more powerful storms.

Professor David Vaughan, of the British Antarctic Survey, said sea levels will change at widely differing rates due to land uplift or subsidence, shifts in gravity and variations in ocean currents and winds such as in the Pacific Ocean.

Sea levels near Greenland, for instance, could fall because its ice sheet has a strong gravitational pull that raises the local sea level. If the ice thaws, the water level will sink.

'Scandinavia will be emerging ... sea level around Antarctica and Greenland will be going down. Almost every projection I have seen shows the highest rates of rise will be in the equatorial Pacific,' he said.

Near Lulea, local resident Hans Lindberg, 56, looks out of the wooden seaside cabin that his parents built in 1960 towards what was then the island of Kalkholmen a few hundred meters (yards) away.

'We could look out from here and only see the sea,' he said, pointing to a muddy bank where reeds are growing and linking the island to the mainland. Residents of the former island say they fear the link may bring unwanted visitors -- perhaps burglars.

'You can walk to the island now. When I was young my father had a heavy boat that we could pull through the shallow part of the channel. That's now impossible,' he said.

As evidence of the change, he shows a faded album with a black and white photo of two young girls -- his sister and cousin -- playing in a sandpit in the 1960s by the cabin. It shows an open sea with no sign of the muddy causeway.

It was the 18th century Swedish scientist Anders Celsius, after whom the temperature scale is named, who first estimated the rate of land rise by studying 16th property documents that marked offshore rocks, valued by hunters, on which seals basked.

By Celsius' time, many of the 'seal rocks' were so high out of the water that the mammals could no longer climb onto them, according to a book by historian Martin Ekman. With the data, Celsius was the first to come up with a rough estimate of the fall -- a slight overestimate of 1.4 cm a year.

Aware that rising global seas will reduce the local land rise, Bengten at Lulea municipality says rules due to take effect in 2012 will ban new homes less than 2 meters (6 ft 6 inches) above sea level after a recent building surge.

'It's a fashion. Elderly people were never attracted to living close by the sea -- they know how cold, how damp and windy it was. Perhaps it comes with better buildings,' she said.

Many places, from North Carolina to Australia, have struggled with sea level rise amid property developers' fears that it could wipe billions of dollars off values if coastal areas are re-defined as flood zones.

'Up in the north where land is rising most...there won't be any problems this century,' said Thomas Hammarklint of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, since land rise would cancel out sea rise of up to a meter.

But he said that Stockholm, for instance, and areas in south and western Sweden where land is rising less fast might suffer.

One drastic option would be for nations around the Baltic Sea, including Russia, Germany, Poland and the Baltic nations, to build barriers from Denmark to Sweden at the narrow mouth of the sea near Copenhagen, he said, declining to estimate costs.

'The Baltic Sea would be a lake again.'

($1 = 6.7267 Swedish crowns)

(Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Monday, November 26, 2012

US defends 'enormous' climate efforts at UN talks

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - Anticipating an onslaught of criticism from poor nations, the United States claimed 'enormous' strides in reducing greenhouse emissions at the opening of U.N. climate talks Monday, despite failing to join other industrialized nations in committing to binding cuts.

The pre-emptive U.S. approach underscores one of the major showdowns expected at the two-week conference as China pushes developed countries to take an even greater role in tackling global warming.

Speaking for a coalition of developed nations known as the G77, China's delegate, Su Wei, said rich nations should become party to an extended Kyoto Protocol - an emissions deal for some industrialized countries that the Americans long ago rejected - or at least make 'comparable mitigation commitments.'

The United States rejected Kyoto because it didn't impose any binding commitments on major developing countries such as India and China, which is now the world's No. 1 carbon emitter.

American delegate Jonathan Pershing offered no new sweeteners to the poor countries, only reiterating what the United States has done to tackle global warming: investing heavily in clean energy, doubling fuel efficiency standards and reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants. Pershing also said the United States would not increase its earlier commitment of cutting emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. It is half way to that target.

'I would suggest those who don't follow what the U.S. is doing may not be informed of the scale and extent of the effort, but it's enormous,' Pershing said.

'It doesn't mean enough is being done. It's clear the global community, and that includes us, has to do more if we are going to succeed at avoiding the damages projected in a warming world,' Pershing added. 'It is not to say we haven't acted. We have and we have acted with enormous urgency and singular purpose.'

The battles between rich and poor nations have often undermined talks in the past decade and stymied efforts to reach a deal to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees C (3.6 F), compared to preindustrial times. Efforts taken in the absence of a deal to rein in emissions, reduce deforestation and promote clean technology are not getting the job done. A recent projection by the World Bank showed temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4 degrees C (7.2 F) by 2100.

Countries are hoping to build on the momentum of last year's talks in Durban, South Africa, where nearly 200 nations agreed to restart stalled negotiations with a deadline of 2015 to adopt a new treaty and extend Kyoto between five and eight years. The problem is that only the European Union and a handful of other nations - which together account for less than 15 percent of global emissions - are willing to commit to that.

Delegates in the Qatari capital of Doha are also hoping to raise billions of dollars to help developing countries adapt to a shifting climate.

'We owe it to our people, the global citizenry. We owe it to our children to give them a safer future than what they are currently facing,' said South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, who led last year's talks in Durban.

Environmentalists fear holding the talks in Qatar - the world's biggest per capita emitter - could slow progress. They argue that the Persian Gulf emirate has shown little interest in climate talks and has failed to reign in its lavish lifestyle and big-spending ways.

There was hope among activists that Qatar might use Monday's opening speech to set the tone of the conference. But Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, the president of the conference and a former Qatari oil minister, didn't offer any voluntary emission targets or climate funding for poor nations.

'Some countries, especially the one where we are sitting, have the potential to decrease their carbon emissions. They have the highest per capita emissions, so they can do a lot,' said Wael Hmaidan, a Lebanese activist and director of the Climate Action Network.

'If nations that are poorer than Qatar, like India and Mexico, can make pledges to reduce their carbon emissions, then countries in the region, especially Qatar, should easily be able to do it. ... They still haven't proven they are serious about climate change.'

Al-Attiyah defended Qatar's environmental record at a later news conference, insisting it was working to reduce emissions from gas flaring and its oil fields. Qatar is already doing plenty to help poor countries with financing, he said, adding that it was unfair to focus on per capita emissions.

'We should not concentrate on per capita. We should concentrate on the amount and quantity that each country produces individually,' al-Attiyah said. 'The quantity is the biggest challenge, not per capita.'

The concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide has jumped 20 percent since 2000, according to a U.N. report released last week. The report also showed that there is a growing gap between what governments are doing to curb emissions and what needs to be done to protect the world from potentially dangerous levels of warming.

At the same time, many scientists say extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy's onslaught on the U.S. East Coast, will become more frequent as the Earth warms, although it is impossible to attribute any individual event to climate change. The rash of violent weather in the U.S., including widespread droughts and a record number of wildfires this summer, has again put climate change on the radar.

'While none of these individual events are necessarily because of climate change, they are certainly consistent with what we anticipate will happen in a warming world,' Pershing said. 'The combination of these events is certainly changing minds of Americans and making clear to people at home the consequences of increased growth in emissions.'

In Washington, Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., urged the U.S. delegation at the talks to 'heed the warnings from Sandy and other extreme weather supercharged by climate change.'

'If the United States does not aggressively pursue sharp reductions in carbon pollution following the droughts, storms and other extreme weather events we have endured, the rest of the world will doubt our sincerity to address climate change,' Markey said. 'It's time to attack the carbon problem head on, and adapt to a climate already changed for the worse.'

Many countries referenced Hurricane Sandy as a rallying cry for tough action to cap emissions, including a group of small island nations that said the monster storm may have jolted the world to recognize 'that we are all in this together.'

'When the tragedies occur far away from the media spotlight, they are too often ignored or forgotten,' the island nations said in a statement.

___

AP reporter Karl Ritter contributed to this report.

__

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What Can Climate Talks in Doha Accomplish?

The international community's attempts to address global warming, and its potentially devastating consequences, resume in earnest today (Nov. 26), as delegates gather in Doha, Qatar.

This is the latest round in two decades of U.N. climate talks that have sought to stem rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which climate scientists warn will lead to devastating sea-level rise, changes in weather and other natural systems.

In 2009, at talks in Copenhagen, negotiators established a goal: Cut emissions enough to cap warming at 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the pre-industrial average, and so avert the worst repercussions.

Over the next two weeks, negotiators will, once again, take a crack at closing the gap between this target and current emissions trajectories, which some worry have placed the planet on a track for considerably more warming and more devastating effects. [How 2 Degrees Will Change Earth]

Here are some of the main points negotiators are expected to tackle in Doha:

Cutting emissions before 2020 & beyond

In Copenhagen, three years ago, some nations made pledges to cut emissions by 2020. The United States, for instance, said it would cut its emissions to 17 percent below the level in 2005. However, as three successive U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) reports have pointed out, even if nations meet these pledges, global emissions are on track to surpass the target in 2020.

There are several potential ways to raise the level of ambition toward meeting this short-term goal, said Niklas Höhne, director of energy and climate policy at the independent research and consulting company Ecofys and a UNEP report author.

These include agreements by pledged countries to deepen their reductions; reductions from areas outside the realm of current national pledges, such as international transport; and pledges from new countries, including those in Middle East, Höhne said.

(Qatar, which is hosting this year's talks, emits the most carbon dioxide per capita in the world, according to World Bank figures. It did not make a pledge.)

Separately from these pledges, the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty that required developed nations to cut emissions, may get new life in the short term. A small group of nations, including the European Union and Australia, may sign on to a second commitment period under the treaty.

The Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period expires this year. While the United States never signed on, other nations, including Canada, Japan and Russia, pulled out of the treaty.

And finally, there is a long-term agreement on the horizon. At Durban, a year ago, negotiators looked further into the future, laying the groundwork for a new agreement to be set up by 2015 and implemented in 2020. Many important details of this agreement remain to be resolved.

What needs to be done?

The nongovernmental group Climate Interactive has performed model simulations of the global energy system to look at possible pathways toward the warming cap. Their work has shown all successful pathways tend to include three components: more energy efficiency, more use of renewable energyand some kind of cost attached to carbon-dioxide emissions, Beth Sawin, the group's co-director told LiveScience. [Top 10 Craziest Environmental Ideas]

Limiting carbon-dioxide emissions from deforestation and successfully limiting other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, are also important, Sawin said.

'Without those elements, our model has difficulty producing pathways to 2 degrees [the cap on warming],' she said, adding, however, 'if we are smart and start soon, the 2-degree goal seems to be within reach.'

Part of the solution may come from outside the U.N. negotiation process, Höhne said.

He and colleagues, writing in the journal Nature Climate Changein an article published online in June, list 21 greenhouse-gas reducing initiatives for companies, cities and other entities, that cumulatively could put the 2-degree warming cap within reach.

These include emissions cuts by companies spearheaded by an association such as the World Business Council for Sustainable Development; and a coalition-led effort to reduce major cities' emissions.

'It has to be a combination of both,' Höhne said of the top-down U.N. negotiation process and the sort of bottom-up efforts described in the paper. 'Each one individually will not work.'

The climate talks are scheduled to end Friday, Dec. 7.

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Sea snails show impact of more acidic ocean

LONDON (Reuters) - The shells of some marine snails in the seas around Antarctica are dissolving as the water becomes more acidic, threatening the food chain, a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience said on Sunday.

Oceans soak up about a quarter of the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year and as CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase from burning fossil fuels, so do ocean levels, making seas more acidic.

Ocean acidification is one of the effects of climate change and threatens coral reefs, marine ecosystems and wildlife.

The shell of the pteropod sea snail in the Southern Ocean was severely dissolved by more acidic surface water, the researchers from the British Antarctic Survey, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other institutions found.

And although the snails did not necessarily die, it increased their vulnerability to predators and infection which could affect other parts of the food chain.

'The corrosive properties of the water caused shells of live animals to be severely dissolved and this demonstrates how vulnerable pteropods are,' said lead author Nina Bednarsek, from the NOAA.

'Ocean acidification, resulting from the addition of human-induced carbon dioxide, contributed to this dissolution.'

The sea snails are an important source of food for fish and birds as well as an indicator of marine ecosystem health.

But until now, there has been little evidence of the impact of ocean acidification on such live organisms in their natural environment and the study supports predictions that acidification could have a significant effect on marine ecosystems.

The researchers examined surface water, where wind causes cold water to be pushed up from deeper water, because it is usually more corrosive to a particular type of calcium carbonate which the sea snails use to build and maintain their shells.

'We know that the seawater becomes more corrosive ... below a certain depth which occurs at around 1,000m. However, at one of our sampling sites, we discovered that this point was reached at 200m depth. Marine snails - pteropods - live in this top layer of the ocean,' Bednarsek said.

Climate models forecast more intense winds in the Southern Ocean this century if CO2 continues to increase, which will make the mixing of deep water with more acidic surface waters more frequent, the study said.

This will make calcium carbonate reach the upper surface layers of the Southern Ocean by 2050 in winter and by 2100 all year round, said the study's co-author Dorothee Bakker, research officer at the University of East Anglia.

Since the start of the industrial revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by 30 percent, according to NOAA research.

If CO2 levels continue to rise in the future, surface waters could be almost 150 percent more acidic by the end of this century, which has not been experienced for more than 20 million years.

(Editing by Alison Williams)



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Sunday, November 25, 2012

UN to launch new round of talks on global warming

DOHA, Qatar (AP) - As nearly 200 countries meet in oil-and-gas-rich Qatar for annual talks starting Monday on slowing global warming, one of the main challenges will be raising climate aid for poor countries at a time when budgets are strained by financial turmoil.

Rich countries have delivered nearly $30 billion in grants and loans promised in 2009, but those commitments expire this year. And a Green Climate Fund designed to channel up to $100 billion annually to poor countries has yet to begin operating.

Borrowing a buzzword from the U.S. budget debate, Tim Gore of the British charity Oxfam said developing countries, including island nations for whom rising sea levels pose a threat to their existence, stand before a 'climate fiscal cliff.'

'So what we need for those countries in the next two weeks are firm commitments from rich countries to keep giving money to help them to adapt to climate change,' he told The Associated Press on Sunday.

Creating a structure for climate financing has so far been one of the few tangible outcomes of the two-decade-old U.N. climate talks, which have failed in their main purpose: reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases that scientists say are warming the planet, melting ice caps, glaciers and permafrost, shifting weather patterns and raising sea levels.

The only binding treaty to limit such emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, expires this year, so agreeing on an extension is seen as the most urgent task by environment ministers and climate officials meeting in the Qatari capital.

However, only the European Union and a few other countries are willing to join a second commitment period with new emissions targets. And the EU's chief negotiator, Artur Runge-Metzger, admitted that such a small group is not going to make a big difference in the fight against climate change.

'I think we cover at most 14 percent of global emissions,' he said.

The U.S. rejected Kyoto because it didn't cover rapidly growing economies such as China and India. Some hope for stronger commitments from U.S. delegates in Doha as work begins on drafting a new global treaty that would also apply to developing countries including China, the world's top carbon emitter. That treaty is supposed to be adopted in 2015 and take effect five years later.

Climate financing is a side issue but a controversial one that often deepens the rich-poor divide that has hampered the U.N. climate talks since their launch in 1992. Critics of the U.N. process see the climate negotiations as a cover for attempts to redistribute wealth.

Runge-Metzger said the EU is prepared to continue supporting poorer nations in converting to cleaner energy sources and in adapting to a shifting climate, despite the debt crisis roiling Europe. But he couldn't promise that the EU would present any new pledges in Doha and said developing countries must present detailed 'bankable programs' before they can expect any money.

Sometimes, developing countries seem to be saying, 'OK give us a blank check,' he told AP.

Climate aid activists bristled at that statement, saying many developing countries have already indicated what type of programs and projects need funding.

'They need the financial and technical support from the EU and others. Yet they continue to promise 'jam tomorrow' whilst millions suffer today,' said Meena Raman of the Third World Network, a nonprofit group.

Countries agreed in Copenhagen in 2009 to set up the Green Climate Fund with the aim of raising $100 billion annually by 2020. They also pledged to raise $30 billion in 'fast-start' climate financing by 2012.

While that short-term goal has nearly been met by countries including the EU, Japan, Australia and the U.S., Oxfam estimates that only one-third of it was new money; the rest was previously pledged aid money repackaged as climate financing. Oxfam also found that more than half of the financing was in the form of loans rather than grants, and that financing levels are set to fall in 2013 as rich countries rein in aid budgets amid debt problems and financial instability.

Meanwhile, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere keeps going up. It has jumped 20 percent since 2000, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to a U.N. report released last week.

A recent projection by the World Bank showed temperatures are on track to increase by up to 4 degrees C (7.2 F) this century, compared with pre-industrial times, overshooting the 2-degree target on which the U.N. talks are based.

___

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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Greenhouse Gas Goals Grow More Elusive

Global greenhouse-gas emissions already have passed the point where the worst effects of global warming could be averted, and they are still rising, according to the third annual United Nations report on the so-called emissions gap.

Some countries have made pledges to help reverse this trend by lowering their emissions. However, the report by the U.N. Environment Programme warns that the gap between these pledges and reductions necessary to cap average global warming at 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2020 continues to widen.

'In addition we have one year less to close it,' said Niklas Höhne, one of the UNEP report's lead authors.

The report, released shortly before an annual round of climate talks set to begin on Monday (Nov. 26) in Qatar, seeks to balance a heightened sense of urgency with a positive message.

'It is technically feasible and economically feasible that the gap can be closed,' Höhne, director of energy and climate policy at the independent research and consulting company Ecofys, told LiveScience.

The math

In 2009, at a meeting in Copenhagen, international negotiators agreed to the goal of capping global warming at 2 degrees C by 2020. Following the meeting, some nations submitted pledges to cut their emissions. The United States, for example, pledged to bring its emissions to about 17 percent below the 2005 level.

In the years since, nations have not made any substantial change to their pledges.

The UNEP report highlights the gap between these pledges and cuts needed put the world on a 'likely' path to stay below the 2-degree target. It calculates that the annual emission rate by 2020 should be no more than 48.5 gigatons (44 metric gigatons) of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. [8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World]

Using the most recent data available, for 2010, the report puts current emissions at 54 gigatons (49 metric gigatons). Extrapolate out to 2020, and the gap grows to between 8.8 and 14.3 gigatons (8 and 13 metric gigatons). Last year's report put the gap at between 6.6 and 12.1 gigatons (6 and 11 metric gigatons).

This year's report attributes the increase to faster-than-expected growth from 2009 to 2010 after the economic downturn. (More economic activity creates more greenhouse-gas emissions.) Improved accounting, taking into account situations in which two countries claim credit for the same emissions reductions, also contributed, the report stated.

(A word about these calculations: While carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas, others such as methane, which has potent warming effect but stays in the atmosphere for only a minuscule period of time compared with carbon dioxide, also contribute. The UNEP report lumps greenhouse gases together, describing them in terms of 'carbon dioxide equivalent.' Because of the differences among the gases, not all scientists support this approach.)

Two sides of a story

Prior to the UNEP report, the World Bank released its assessment of a future resulting from no action, in which the average global surface temperature climbs by 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) or more and the world sees more extreme effects.

As emissions continue to climb, some climate scientists have said that an increase of 4 degrees C (7.2 degrees F) is a more likely scenario.

The World Bank report, called 'Turn Down the Heat,' describes a future world of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought and major floods in many regions. The effects are expected to hit humans hard, particularly in the poorer parts of the world.

Both reports attempt to convey a positive message:

'With action, a 4-degree C world can be avoided, and we can likely hold warming below 2 degrees C,' the authors of the World Bank report write.

The UNEP emissions gap report, meanwhile, lists policies that, when implemented, could help narrow the gap. These include energy-efficiency standards and labeling for equipment and lighting; improvements in building codes; transportation infrastructure focused on mass transit, walking, cycling and waterways; and forestry policies such as Brazil's increasing protection of areas in the Amazon and its investment in satellite-based monitoring to prevent illegal deforestation.

'There is certainly more action now than ever if you [look] at what is happening in different countries," Höhne said.

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Qatar set to host major climate talks

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - When the tiny desert nation of Qatar was chosen to host the latest round of United Nations climate change negotiations, environmentalists were stunned.

Talks were already in trouble, and now the high-level discussions were moving to a member of OPEC that had shown little interest in climate change and appointed a former oil minister to lead the negotiations, which start Monday. The country's economic boom, driven by vast oil and gas reserves, has led to free electricity for citizens and an abundance of gas-guzzling SUVs in the capital, Doha. It has also made Qatar the world's highest per capita carbon dioxide emitter.

'Nongovernment organizations had mixed feelings about it,' said Wael Hmaidan, a Lebanese activist who is director of the Climate Action Network. 'Some were very concerned and found it a threat knowing that Qatar has not been engaged in the climate change negotiations, while others found it an opportunity to get the climate debate higher on the political agenda of the region.'

Activists complain Qatar has shown little leadership so far and been much less transparent than previous hosts of the annual climate conference.

Among the most vocal has been advocacy group Avaaz, which asserts that 'having one of the OPEC leaders in charge of climate talks is like asking Dracula to look after a blood bank.' It also criticized Qatari leaders for attending a big oil conference just ahead of the talks, a sign its priorities may misplaced.

But publicly, delegates have been careful to avoid criticizing the emirate. The top United Nations climate official said preparations are on track.

'I'm not concerned,' said Christiana Figueres, the executive secretary of the United Nations Climate Change secretariat. 'We are very grateful. Qatar not only offered, but literally fought for the opportunity and privilege of hosting.'

'We have been impressed with work of the Qatar team and how they have brought themselves very quickly up to speed with the complexity of the issues,' she said.

Hosting the conference is part of the tiny Gulf nation's campaign to project itself as a powerhouse on the world stage, after winning the bid to host the 2022 World Cup and backing rebellions in Libya and Syria.

It also offers the ruling family an opportunity to change perceptions about a region that in the past has seemed concerned only with protecting its vast oil and gas reserves from the impact of any climate agreement.

Qatar and its Persian Gulf neighbors insist that portrayal is outdated.

The United Arab Emirates has, for example, endorsed the extension of the Kyoto Protocol, which limits the greenhouse emissions of industrialized countries. It was also the first Gulf nation to sign on to the Copenhagen Accord supporting a long-term deal to reign in emissions.

Even Saudi Arabia, which in the past led opposition to a global agreement capping greenhouse gas emissions, has moderated its position and shaken up its negotiating team.

Leaders in the Gulf also are more vocally acknowledging the impact of climate change, endorsing the science that shows emissions are on rise and recognizing they are not immune to the impact of global warming. They also are promising to do their part to combat it.

'I describe Qatar as the epicenter of climate change. There is no water, no food. It's barren desert,' said Fahad Bin Mohammed al-Attiya, chairman of Doha's COP18 organizing committee. 'Any problems to harvest season or productivity outside the Gulf would immediately impact our ability to have access to food at reasonable global prices.'

Qatar and the UAE have rolled out green building codes in an effort to shift away from energy-wasting high-rises that dominate the skyline. Qatar says it will produce 20 percent of its energy from renewables by 2024, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have announced plans to invest heavily in solar power.

The UAE, which has set a target to generate 7 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2020, is home to the International Renewable Energy Agency and the government-run Masdar Institute, which has built the first phase of a pre-planned city powered by renewable sources. The UAE has also announced plans to build four nuclear reactors, the first of which should be operational by 2017.

'We don't want to continue to be seen as only an exporter of oil through barrels or gas through pipelines,' said Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the chief executive officer of Masdar and UAE's Special Envoy for Energy and Climate Change.

'Our approach should be an energy mix approach where oil and gas continues to play a role, nuclear continues to play a catalytic role but the only energy source that will grow over time will be renewable energy,' he said. 'That is simply because the technology is maturing and the world better recognizes the need for advancing this technology.'

Activists, though, want to see Gulf countries go further at the climate talks.

Former Irish President Mary Robinson said they should commit to voluntary emissions targets, like former conference host Mexico did. Gulf nations' total emissions are a fraction of China's and the United States', but setting targets would help inspire others to take action.

'Leadership of the Gulf countries is very important' she said at a meeting addressing climate change in Dubai.

Activists say they also could do more to cut fuel subsidies that make bottled water more expensive that gasoline in many Gulf countries, policies partly enacted to keep the lid on political dissent.

Others have called on the Gulf - which has some of the world's highest per capita incomes thanks to its vast petrodollars - to contribute to the U.N.'s Green Climate Fund. The fund aims to channel $100 billion annually by 2020 to aid to poor countries. So far, Gulf countries have contributed nothing.

'Qatar has a GDP per capita which is three times ours in Europe,' EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard told The Associated Press. 'Should ... also the Qataris come up with some financing? So we have tried to encourage them. I don't know what the response will be, but let's see.'

Expectations are also high that the Gulf countries will play a more productive and public role in negotiations, after years in which only the UAE countered Saudi Arabia's obstructionist tactics and its widely-ridiculed demands that OPEC members be compensated for loss of oil revenues in any agreement - a move criticized by impoverished nations who would be forced to compete with the world's top oil producer for aid.

Those views have been moderated, al-Attiya said, as Gulf countries recognize efforts to diversify their economies are not as difficult and costly as they once seemed. Still, Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia are demanding measures in any agreement that would assist them in shifting away from fossil fuels.

The Gulf countries want to have the right to use a diversity of energy sources, including both fossil fuels and renewables, said al-Attiya.

'It's not an excuse,' al-Attiya said. 'Every country wants that right, provided that right to diversify is governed by rules that say, for instance, you are not going to diversify at the expense of causing more damage to the environment. '

___

Associated Press writer Karl Ritter in Stockholm contributed to this report.



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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

The Puniest Planet; The New Truth About Wormholes

Discovered: Why this dwarf planet has little atmosphere; roots of PTSD run deep; climate change could affect our past as well as our future; studying holes in old books reveals insect histories.

RELATED: Science Can Predict Twitter's Trending Topics; Light from Dead Stars

Makemake's unmade atmosphere. The dwarf planet known as Makemake lies beyond Pluto, way out in far reaches of our solar system. But many astronomers still thought that it was substantial enough to harbor an atmosphere similar to Pluto's. No such luck, according to researchers led by Jose-Luis Ortiz of Spain's Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia. They found that Makemake may be the right size for sustaining an atmosphere, but it is considerable less dense than neighbors like Pluto, making it home to a patchy, unsubstantial atmosphere. "We believe that Makemake probably had plenty of nitrogen ice in the ancient past, like Pluto and Eris, but because Makemake is not very massive, its gravity could not retain the gas," says Ortiz. [New Scientist]

RELATED: Earth Could Be 11 Degrees Warmer by 2100; Never-Before-Seen Whales Wash Ashore

Climate change reaches back in time. The big question on everyone's mind when it comes to climate change is what the future will be like in an increasingly warm world. But if you're an archaeologist, you might actually be thinking about how climate change affects the past. Sonoma University State researcher Mike Newland is leading efforts to examine California's coastal archaeological sites before they're swallowed up by rising sea levels. "This is the history of all of us, everywhere, worldwide that's going to be impacted by this," Newland says. "Can you imagine what's going to happen to the Greek coastline and all the islands? Holy cow. North Africa, the Middle East. The whole Aegean is going to get hammered. If you get six feet of sea level rise, what's going to happen to Venice? These are some of our most important sites as a species." [KQED]

RELATED: Pyramid Rumors, Sally Ride, and Rare Books

Worm-chewed books unlock insect histories. If you come across a musty old book full of holes, don't chuck it in the trash. Send it to Pennsylvania State University's Blair Hedges, who studies insect-made holes in books in order to better understand entomological history. Wormholes in old books are what Hedges calls "trace fossils," and they reveal a lot about the beetles that are the subject of his work. He's interested in moving from books to woodcut prints in the near future. "Benjamin Franklin had his own printing house in Philadelphia and made some famous woodcut prints, such as Join or Die," he says. "Different species of wood-boring insects have made their mark on those woodcuts as well, and discovering their history in the same way is now possible.” [Discover]

RELATED: Curiosity Is Surprised by a Rock; Rejected Papers Come Back Stronger

PTSD cases could have roots in childhood. The narrative of shell-shocked soldiers returning home with newly developed cases of post-traumatic stress disorder will be a familiar one to those following news of widespread veteran suicides. However, a team of Danish and American psychologists has found that traumatic events in adulthood are not responsible for PTSD development alone. Many of the patients that come down with the affliction had troubled childhoods, upbringings that may have sown the seeds for future psychological issues. The derived this conclusion after studying 746 subjects, before and after being deployed. [Scientific American]



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